Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/07

Outputs
OUTPUTS: A survey of Wyoming cattle producers conducted during the spring of 2005 asked respondents to identify all of the potential drought management strategies they used each year during the years 2000 through 2004. The most common drought management strategies reported in the survey were analyzed in a subsequent Master's thesis by adapting an existing multi-period mathematical optimization model of a representative cow-calf operation in Fremont county, Wyoming . Monthly precipitation data for the case study area from 1948 to 2006 was analyzed for consecutive years of below average precipitation during key range forage production months (April, May and June). An average 3-year drought and 4 year scenario drought (defined in terms of consecutive years of below average precipitation during critical range forage production months) were defined based on this historical data. The precipitation scenarios were then used to predict forage response given relevant study area statistical models developed by University of Wyoming researchers. Historical prices for all classes of livestock in the mathematical model were analyzed during 1968 to 2006 and regression techniques were used to forecast two, smoothed, 12-year, price cycle scenarios (peak to peak and trough to trough) for each class of livestock. Twenty eight different scenarios of drought (no drought, 3 year, or worst case drought), management (partial herd liquidation only, purchased feed only, or combined liquidation and purchased feed) and price cycle (average prices for each cycle scenario, peak to peak cycle, or trough to trough cycle) were analyzed using the multi-period model. Drought was modeled to start in year 2 for each scenario. The overall results of our survey were the basis of a report regarding the cattle industry in Wyoming including our drought management results. This report can be found on a website dedicated to this project at http://agecon.uwyo.edu/WYLivestock/default.htm. Moreover, the survey results were the basis for a journal article in the Western Economics Forum which encouraged agricultural economists to think about a number of issues related to drought management analyses for livestock producers. Additionally, the survey results were the basis for an extension publication published through the University of Wyoming Cooperative Extension Service designed to help livestock producers who are considering drought management alternatives as well. This publication can also be found on the above website along with a PowerPoint presentation that educators and the public at large can download. The results from the mathematical programming model are reported in an unpublished Master's thesis at the University of Wyoming in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics completed in the Fall of 2007. These results have been incorporated into several extension programs by Dr. Mike Smith (Range Management Specialist) and Dr. Steven Paisley (Beef Cattle Specialist). Moreover, these results are currently being drafted for possible publication as a refereed journal article and extension publication in 2008. PARTICIPANTS: John Ritten, PhD Student, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. John provided consultation on GAMS programming for project, and one paper in his dissertation is extending the model reported in Padmaja Ponnameneni's master's thesis completed this fall at the University of Wyoming. TARGET AUDIENCES: Livestock producers

Impacts
The most frequently cited management strategies in our survey results across all years and operation sizes were purchasing additional winter feed and partial herd. Net discounted returns, number of cattle raised (in AUY), net feed use (raised meadow and purchased alfalfa), and amount of short term borrowing were collected and analyzed from the mathematical programming model output files. As expected, the highest average returns were for those scenarios in which no drought occurred. Within drought scenarios, returns were high in the four year drought scenario (which had less intensive drought early on) and less in purchased feed scenarios. Comparing the price cycles, net discounted returns are generally less in peak to peak price cycle than that of the trough to trough price cycles. Overall, purchasing feed was a much more risky strategy in terms of income variability, and was only feasible when prices were favorable in a trough to trough price cycle. Partial liquidation was more often the preferred strategy. None of the results suggested that total herd liquidation was a preferred strategy in any of the drought and price cycle scenarios. This suggests that maintaining a superior genetic base when liquidating cows is likely the best approach to positioning the ranch for taking advantage of improved precipitation and or prices. These results are a significant contribution to the research literature and should provide valuable information to livestock producers. Mike Smith and Steve Paisley have both incorporated results from this research in extension programs presented to livestock producers. Moreover, the Wyoming Livestock Roundup published results from one of Mike Smith's presentations. Interest and anecdotal evidence suggests producers are using this information in their decision making. Moreover our results are the spring board for further research on this topic in a doctoral dissertation at Colorado State University in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Thus, this project also has impacted the graduate education of one Master's and one PhD student in addition to helping livestock producers deal with extended periods of drought.

Publications

• Nagler, A., C. T. Bastian, J. P. Hewlett, S. Mooney, S. I. Paisley, M. A. Smith, M. Frasier, W. Umberger, and P. Ponnameneni. 2007. "Multiple Impacts - Multiple Strategies: How Wyoming Cattle Producers Are Surviving in Prolonged Drought." Bulletin B-1178. Cooperative Extension Service, College of Agriculture, University of Wyoming, Laramie.

Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
OUTPUTS: test PARTICIPANTS: No Participant information reported. TARGET AUDIENCES: No Target Audiences information reported. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No Project Modifications information reported.

Impacts
test

Publications

• Nagler, A., S. Mooney, C. Bastian, J. P. Hewlett, B. Aldridge, B. A. Sarchet, W. Umberger, M. Frasier, S. I. Paisley, M. A. Smith, P. Ponnameneni, D. T. Taylor, and T. Foulke. 2006. Wyoming Beef Cattle Producers Survey: Final Report. Published by Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie. June. pp: 1-142. (http://agecon.uwyo.edu/WYLivestock/FINALReport.pdf).
• Bastian, C. T., S. Mooney, A. M. Nagler, J. P. Hewlett, S. I. Paisley, M. A. Smith, W. M. Frasier, and W. J. Umberger. 2006. Cattle Ranchers Diverse in Their Drought Management Strategies, Western Economics Forum. 5,2: 1-8.
• Anthony Prashanth 2007 - Thanks to USDA FUNDING

Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05

Outputs
During calendar year 2005 significant progress was made on research objectives 1 through 3 of our research proposal. Those objectives are: 1) Gather information from a sample of Wyoming cattle producers regarding management strategies and resource issues to be considered in the analysis. In particular we will identify potential strategies such as reduced stocking rates, early weaning of calves, backgrounding programs, and alternative enterprises that should be considered. Additional information will be gathered regarding producers' thoughts on research dissemination and potential impacts on production systems during persistent drought. 2) Analyze cattle production systems and management strategies identified in 1) and identify common enterprise combinations used by ranchers within the study area. 3) Develop a mathematical optimization model that integrates biological and economic data. An extensive mail survey asking questions regarding current resource base, enterprises, production and management practices, drought management questions and demographics was developed. That survey was mailed to a sample of 3000 beef cattle producers drawn from USDA NASS census list in the spring of 2005. This was a random sample stratified by size ( Small (< 100 hd), Medium (100-499 hd) and Large (500 > hd) proportional to census data. We used a modified Dillman design for the mail portion of the survey. A follow up phone survey sampling nonrespondents using the full survey instrument was then conducted. Overall, 1190 responses were returned for a 40 percent response rate which was very good given the length and difficulty of the survey. The data were checked for errors and when possible responses were corrected. Descriptive statistics were estimated and currently a report of the results is being drafted. Responses were analyzed based on size of operation. Highlights of these results include the following: 1) The dominant enterprise for cattle producers in the state is the cow/calf enterprise; 2) Average number of years respondents were negatively impacted by drought was five across all size categories; 3) Producers rank having a drought contingency plan as their number 1 need; and, 4) Respondents used a number of strategies across and within years to deal with drought and across operation size. Strategies included partial and total herd liquidation, selling retained yearlings, leasing or purchasing additional grazing and winter feed, early weaning of calves, participation in government programs, adding alternative enterprises, and earning off-farm income. Additionally, a mathematical model of a case livestock operation based in Fremont County is developed and project researchers both at Colorado State University and University of Wyoming are working to develop appropriate parameters to be used for analysis.

Impacts
The ability of producers to adopt economically and environmentally sustainable production practices in the face of persistent drought has received little attention in the research literature to date. As such, this research coupled with producer education regarding our findings on optimal drought management strategies should improve the economic viability of ranches and reduce agricultural families' stress, while reducing potential damage to natural resources used in western cow-calf production systems. An economically and environmentally sustainable western ranching industry should enhance the viability of rural communities dependent on rancher incomes, maintain the quality of natural resources and promote better quality of life in Wyoming and the West.

Publications

• No publications reported this period