Source: VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE submitted to
ESTIMATING SPECIES OCCURRENCE, POPULATION SIZE, AND POPULATION TRAJECTORIES USING NOVEL TECHNIQUES FOR THE PURPOSE OF WILDLIFE CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT.
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0215894
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
VA-135852
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2008
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2013
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Kelly, M.
Recipient Organization
VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
(N/A)
BLACKSBURG,VA 24061
Performing Department
Fish and Wildlife Conservation
Non Technical Summary
Determining whether a particular wildlife species occurs in an area can be difficult because many species are elusive and difficult to detect. In particular, it is hard to rule out a false negative which occurs when an animal is present but the survey fails to detect it. This problem of non-detections therefore hampers our ability to create accurate range maps, identify factors influencing species distribution, and predict species occurrence across the landscape. The study described here uses new techniques designed to increase species detections, determine detection probabilities across species and sites, and to use that information for more effective wildlife management. If a species is detected frequently, the next step is to estimate population size. Determining population size is essential to many wildlife management plans for both game and non-game species. Knowing population sizes allows us to determine how a population is faring over time (e.g., increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable). In addition, it allows us to determine whether populations are responding to our management actions. For example, is a population of an endangered species increasing after the designation of a new protected area Or, is a population declining after we increase hunting or fishing quotas These questions are of fundamental importance not only to the biologist, but to the rural Virginian wildlife enthusiast and sport hunter alike. As the human population expands and human-wildlife interactions increase, it becomes even more important to determine the status and trajectories of wildlife populations in order to better manage the species of interest. Population size estimation, however, is not a simple matter. It requires being able to count individuals and account for animals that are present in the population but were missed in the survey. This means that individuals must have distinct markings (or be marked by researchers) in order to be counted, and that we can estimate a detection or capture probability by which to divide our population count. Repeated surveys are often needed to determine this capture, or detection, probability. This study addresses issues of species detection and population size estimation, both necessities for wildlife management across of variety of species and sites. Additionally, this work uses new and evolving techniques for species detection and population size estimation and uses innovative analyses to obtain information that can be used in population modeling to conserve species. The results also add to our understanding of how species distributions and abundances change naturally, or in response to management, as we track populations over time. We can also correlate these detections and estimations with habitat variables and community structure (i.e., presence and density of other species in the community) in order to develop predictive models of species occurrence and predict population trajectories over time. This work has broad application at the state, national, and international levels.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1350830107030%
1350830209010%
1357299107010%
1357310209020%
1360830107020%
1360850107010%
Knowledge Area
135 - Aquatic and Terrestrial Wildlife; 136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity;

Subject Of Investigation
7310 - Experimental design and statistical methods; 0850 - Wildlife habitats; 0830 - Wild animals; 7299 - Research equipment and methods, general/other;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology; 2090 - Statistics, econometrics, and biometrics;
Goals / Objectives
The overall objective of this proposed plan of work is to provide appropriate recommendations for wildlife population management through advancing the field of species detection and detectability analysis and through novel approaches in population estimation and analysis. This will be accomplished by using innovative and evolving techniques to obtain species and individual detections in the field combined with using recently-developed statistical techniques for incorporating detectability into occupancy modeling and population size estimation methods. These techniques are framed within the fundamental ecological context of how to predict species occurrence and abundance over time - issues paramount to management. We can predict species occurrence by collecting habitat variables at each site or remotely through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) layers and then relating these variables to species presence/absence and abundance. We then can develop predictive models of species occurrence across the landscape without having to survey the entire landscape, which often is not possible. We also can relate species occurrence to those of other species that co-occur to determine whether there is attraction or repulsion of species to each other. Estimating population size in various surveys over time allows us to predict population size into the future by modeling population trajectories based on current conditions. This also permits population viability analyses, which consider all the factors that place a population at risk. Therefore, the tools and techniques applied in this study represent important advancements in our ability to address fundamental questions regarding the distribution and abundance of wildlife species across habitats and through time. I have divided the objectives into 2 sections: 1. To increase species detections, using relatively new technology, and to apply an occupancy modeling approach to predict species occurrence across the landscape. 2. To extend remote monitoring techniques to estimate population size, density, survival, and recruitment for populations to ultimately determine population trends and population viability.
Project Methods
The simplest form of mark-recapture analysis uses 2 capture events and assumes population closure (no immigration or emigration and no births or deaths during the survey). The logic is straight forward - the ratio of the real population (N) to the first capture event is equal to the ratio of the number captured in the second event to those marked in the second event. Mark-recapture models are now very complex, but all have their basis in incorporating a capture probability into population size estimates in order to obtain a more accurate estimate of the true population size. This research uses a relatively new approach of creating capture histories for each individual animal from multiple surveys. By developing capture histories for all animals we can model the detectability of animals across the entire population and through time. This gives us more accurate population size estimates as well as insights into the detection process. Through what is known as robust design, we can distinguish true absence (death) from non-detection (capture probability). In this way we can determine survival rates from our population. Assuming individuals have similar capture probabilities (or ones that change in a predictable manner) from year to year, we can distinguish death from non-detection. Logistic regression, as opposed to standard linear regression, is used in circumstances when the dependent variables are bounded by zero and one, while the independent variables are continuously distributed. Since the dependent variable here is binomially rather than normally distributed, we use the maximum likelihood method to fit a regression line to logit-transformed data. The maximum likelihood method will result in the values for the parameter that make the observed values in our data set seem probable. By selecting the model most appropriate to the data, we can derive the most meaningful estimates of survival and recapture rates. We now have a way to determine what factors (biotic and abiotic) have the strongest influence on survival and detection rates for our population. This is essential information for species conservation. The need to bring discipline and value to presence/absence (or detection-non-detection) data is long overdue. This is particularly surprising given the long and impressive history of modeling imperfect detectability in mark-recapture data. Describing repeated site visits as a series of independent Bernoulli trials with and outcome of 0 or 1 for absence/presence now allows us to use mark-recapture statistics on presence/absence data. This allows estimation of the proportion of sites occupied while adjusting for imperfect detection. P/a information (detection histories) can now be incorporated directly into a maximum liklelihood estimation model resulting in the simultaneous estimate of detection probabilities and occupancy rates. In this way, p/a data can be used as a surrogate for population size for cryptic or low density species. Habitat data can be related to detection/non-detection data and used to identify habitats with high occupancy such that they could be the focus of conservation management.

Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Target Audience: 1) Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries (VDGIF) 2) Viginia Deer Hunters Association 3) The Nature Conservancy 4) Rio Bravo Conservation and Managment Area, Program for Belize; 5) Belize Forest Department 6) Philadelphia Zoo 7) Virginia Tech Undergraduates 8) University of Belize Undergraduates 9) Ferrum College Undergraduates Efforts to deliver science-based knowledge.4 poster presentations and 2 talks delivered to the Virginia State Chapter of the Wildlife Society where we updated VDGIF about on-going projects. 1 round table discussion in Bath County Virginia to the Viginia Deer Hunters Association, including concerned members of the community. 1 oral presentation to the Nature Conservancy Fire Leanrning Network.2 reports delivered to the Rio Bravo Conservation and Managment Area - Program for Belize Staff. 3 Reports delivered the Forest Department, Belize. 1 report to the Philadelphia Zoo and participation in the Zoo Crew program designed to increase representation of minority high school students in wildlife biology. Experiential learning opportunities provided for Viirginia Tech, Ferrum College, and University of Belize students through participation in the Jaguar Monitoring Project in Belize, Central America. This included 5 VT students,1 Ferrum student, and 1 UB student working side by side for summer internships and volunteer experience. Resulted in increased cultural awareness and addressed global issues surrounding wildlife conservation. Other teaching-4 workshops delivered to Virginia Tech students regarding proper care and monitoring of anesthetized black bears. Hands on training provided in black bear immobilizations to over 15 undergraduate and graduate students in proper care and monitoring of anesthetized black bears in over 60 immobilizations. Innovative teaching methods also include 10-day field intensive required by Virginia Tech undergraduate students to learn WIldlife Field Techniques. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Training Activities: The PI has delivered 6 training workshops in camera trapping methodology and analyses. These include: 2 workshops at theUgyen-Wangchuck Institute for Conservation Ecologyin Bhutan- Camera trapping in Mountainous Asian Landscapes of Bhutan and data analysis techniques; 2 workshops for Wildlife Conservation Society Madagascar Program in Masoala-Makira Peninsula - Camera trapping survey design and field study and density estimation for the Malagasy Civet; 1 workshop in mark-recapture analysis techniques for both camera trapping data and scat sample data. 1 workshop in Belize, Central America - mark-recapture analysis for jaguar density estimation - University of Belize. Other training activities include mentoring of undergraduates and graduate students in research, study design, and analysis through formal and informal internship programs. The PI has formally mentored 10 undergraduate researchers including7 Summer Undergraduate Research Fellows (SURF) at Virginia Tech. Informally, this project has trained over 35 undergraduate volunteers on camera trapping andmolecular scatologyresearch projects in Virginia, Belize, Madagascar, and Botswana. In terms of graduate students, the PI has formally mentored 9 completed or current PhD students and 6 completed or current MS student on this project. In addition, the PI is an external advisor on 6 other graduate student committees for international students. Professional Development: This project has supported professional development for at least 15 graduate students and 25 undergraduates in the past 5 years. Graduate students and undergraduates have given posters or oral presentations at 7 Local professional meetings, 19 Regional professional meetings, 21 National professional meetings, and 21 International professional meetings. In addition, the PI has given 11 invited seminar presentations and 3 invited keynote presentations. Local professional meetings have included: The Virginia Tech, Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium; The Virginia Tech Graduate Student Association Research Symposium. Regional professional meetings have included: The Annual Mountain Lion Workshop- Montana; The student Society for Conservation Biology symposium - New York; The Virginia Cooperative Extension Agent Training and Outreach Symposium; The Appalachian College Association Annual Meeting - Virginia; The Virginia State Chapter of The Wildlife Society; The Alleghany Highland and Border Fire Learning Network - Virginia; The Southeastern Deer Study Group - Georgia and Texas; The International Science and Education Program, USDA - Washington DC.; The Undergraduate Research Symposium at NC State- North Carolina; The Undergraduate Research Symposium - University of Michigan. National professional meetings have included: The Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Symposium for underrepresented minority students - North Carolina; The Wildlife Society National Meetings - Utah, Hawaii, Oregon, Wisconsin; American Association of Physical Anthropologists- Tennessee; Carnivores Conference - Colorado; The Organization of Fish and Wildlife Information Managers - Tennessee; The International Society for Wildlife Endocrinologists - Illinois; The American Association of Zoos and Aquariums - Wisconsin. International professional meetings have included: The Society for Conservation Biology - New Zealand; The Natural Resource Management Symposium - Belize; The British Ecological Society, Tropical Ecology Group - England; The International Congress for Conservation Biology - South Africa; The Meso-American Society for Biological Conservation - Belize; The International Primatological Society - Mexico; The Borneo Carnivore Symposium; Mammological Congress - Argentina. Invited seminar presentations have been delivered at Auburn University, University of Idaho, North Carolina State University, University of Virginia, University of Montana, University of Kentucky, Texas A and M; Virginia Tech Ecology and Evolution Seminar Series and Entomology Series, Institute of Forestry Tribuvan University - Nepal. Invited Keynote Presentations have been delivered at Ferrum College, Virginia; The Smithsonian Institution – Washington D.C.; Texas Society of Mammalogists Annual Banquet How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results of this project have been disseminated to community groups in at least 9 presentations to non-scientific groups in order to increase interest in wildlife science and conservation. Those 9 presentations are listed below. In addition, this project implemented the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Science and Education Project entitled Integrating Science, Education, and Extension – Belize and Virginia. This project was unique in that it included Virginia Extension Agents, professors from Wildlife, Entomology, and Biology, and undergraduate and graduate students from Virginia Tech and Ferrum College to travel to Belize, Central America for 3 consecutive years 2009-2011. The purpose was to meet with extension agents in Belize to determine how they handled resource management issues such as timber extraction, wildlife conservation, and invasive species. This linking of different fields was enlightening on all fronts. US and Belizean extension agents worked together to determine how to best handle the invasion of the Africanized honeybees in the US (an issue that Belize has already dealt with). Touring timber extraction operations was eye-opening for wildlife scientists. And this project was able to enlighten both Belizean and US extension agents regarding the importance of wildlife science and how best to meet needs of both wildlife and humans. This 3-years USDA-ISE program was highly successful and can serve as a model for national and international outreach and education. Finally – the project has been featured in at least 30 other specialty newsletters, magazines, or radio interviews. These venues include: National Geographic Blog; National Geographic photo gallery; National Public Radio; The Nepal Tiger Genome Project webpage www.ntgp.org.np; Dogs Today magazine; GeoPlace magazine; GeoWorld magazine; Virginia Tech’s College of Natural Resources and Environment (CNRE) Newsletter; Virginia Tech Homepage Spotlight featured story; Virginia Tech Daily News; Virginia Tech Research Magazine; University of Virginia – Mountain Lake Echoes; Virginia Wildlife; Wildlife Professional; The Allegheny Highlands Recorder; Allegheny Mountain Radio Interview. Formal outreach presentations. 2013, May. Of Mice and Coyotes: An Undergraduate Research Experience. Jake Estienne and Roxana Dalton. College of Natural Resources and Environment . Engagement Matters, 6(2): 2-3 2013, June. M.J. Kelly The Jaguar Project – Gallon Jug, Yalbac, Programme for Belize. Presentation to the Casey Community School (ages 6-14) in Gallon Jug Belize 2013, January - Dana Morin (PhD student) spoke about the Virginia Appalachian Coyote Study (VACS) to the Appalachian Chapter of the Virginia Deer Hunters Association, Bath County, VA (with Al Bourgeois). 2013, January - Dana Morin (PhD student) gave an oral presentation about the Virginia Appalachian Coyote Study (VACS) with the attendees to the USFS Regional Biologist Meeting, Roanoke, VA. 2011, Kelly, M.J. Use of remote camera photography for wildlife studies. Blacksburg Photography Club. Blacksburg Parks and Recreation Center, Blacksburg VA. Nov 29, 2011. 2010, Kelly, M.J. “ Hunting” elusive jaguars with trip cameras and smart dogs. Faculty Women’s Club Presentation. Blacksburg, VA. April 2010. 2009, Stevens, G.; Hammett. T.H.; Fell, R., and M.J. Kelly. Rainforest to Reef: Study Abroad in Belize. Engagement Matters 1(6), pages 2-3. Engagement Matters, Sept. 2009. 2009 Kelly, M.J. and C. Wultsch. Trapping big cats with smart dogs and jaguar hunting with cameras. Cafe Scientifique. Blacksburg, VA. August 2009. 2008, April. C. Wultsch; Davis, M. L and M.J. Kelly. Using scat dogs to gain information on jaguars. Presentation to the Casey Community School (ages 6-14) in Gallon Jug Belize What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Impact of the Project: Wildlife management addresses multiple topics such as how to increase small populations thatare suffering from human-caused declines, how to decrease overabundant populations thatare a nuisance to society, how to monitor populations over the long term to determine trends, and how to provide harvest quotas for wildlife populations to maintain recreational opportunities. Fundamental to addressing all of these management scenarios, is the need for accurate assessments of wildlife population sizes, trends,and distributions across the landscape. This is particularly important for elusive, wide-ranging, species that are hard to count, such as most predators. I specialize in using emerging techniques to estimate wildlife population sizes, distributions, and trends, thus impacting the way we conduct wildlife surveys.My laboratoryhas pioneered using remotely-triggered, infrared cameras to "photo-trap" wildlife species. This "camera-trapping" technique has risen from a hobby activity, to a standardized research and monitoring technique. It is now possible to determine a population's distribution across the landscape, probability of occurrence, population size, density, survival, and recruitment without ever seeing an animal first-hand! All of this can be done remotely - especially for terrestrial mammal species.My lab has worked diligently to advance this technique, both through better field survey methods, and through advanced analytical data analysis techniques. For example, we are now able to estimate animal demography using these techniques for cougars, bobcats, black bears, coyotes, white-taileddeer; and internationally - for jaguars, pumas, ocelots, leopards, tigers, fosas, civets, and servals. We are currently expanding to other species. My lab is also pioneering another, emerging technique in non-invasive, wildlife monitoring - "molecular scatology". Using genetics, we can now collect scat (fecal) samples, run genetic analyses, and determine not only what species the scat came from, but the gender, and even the individual! It is amazing the facts we can now gather from feces. This research direction has already had a huge impact on wildlife management. We now have another way to determine distribution, abundance, and density of wildlife populations without ever handling animals in the survey process. Genetic sampling also can give us even more information on relatedness between individual animals and enable us to determine what population and particular scat the sample came from. This means that we can tell if an animal has dispersed or moved from one place to another. This gives us insight into connectivity of wildlife populations across fragmented habitat and gives insight into genetic health. It is truly incredible what is now possible in wildlife sciences that were not possible a decade ago. While collecting scat (fecal) samples might sound easy, there was no standardized, repeatable technique for doing this. My lab has developed rigorous techniques for field data collection and, in collaboration with geneticists, developed rigorous genetic analysis techniques. In addition, we have pushed the envelope through the use of scat detector dog (sniffer dogs) to aid us in finding fecal samples from the target species. These dogs are similar to bomb/drug detector dogs, but instead they are trained on findingfecal samples from the target species. We have developed techniques for using scat dogs in the field to collect scat samples in a standardized fashion. Species that we have applied scat sampling techniques to include coyotes, bobcats, black bears, foxes, and... internationally jaguars, pumas, ocelots, margays, jaguarundis, leopards, wild dogs, lions, servals, caracals, and domestic cats.We continue to push the envelope on what we can learn. I am using camera trapping and molecular scatology on projects in: the United States, Belize, Argentina, Madagascar, Sumatra, Nepal, Senegal, and Botswana. Additionally, in collaboration with colleagues we are also working in Bolivia, Bhutan, and Spain. Ihave graduated5 American graduate students and 2 international PhD students on these projects. Currently I advise 6 Americangraduate students and 3 international students using such techniques on various wildlife projects.While many of these techniques were developed in the United States, they are clearly having a worldwide impact. Objective 1 - Combining new technology and modeling techniques for occupancy (distributional) analyses. Objective 2 - Extending monitoring and modeling to more complexpopulation demographics (abundance, density, survival, etc.). 1) Major activities. My lab has developed "occupancy analysis" (distributional studies) over large landscapes including applying them to coyotes in the easternUS, tigers and co-occurring species in Sumatra, and multiple carnivorespecies in Madagascar. We have alsospearheaded techniques using complex capture-recapture, statistical techniques from both camera trapping and molecular scatology to estimate abundance and density for coyotes, bobcats, and black bears in the eastern US; and for tigers in Sumatra and Nepal; leopards in Nepal, Senegal,and Botswana; pumas in Belize, Bolivia, and Argentina; jaguars, ocelots, and margays in Belize;lions, wild dogs and servals in Senegal;and fosa and civets in Madagascar. Multiple publications and reports have resulted. 2) Data collected. Data collection has taken the form of both photographic captures from camera trapping in the United States, Belize, Sumatra, Botswana, Nepal, Senegal, and Madagascar. It has taken the form of scat (fecal) genetic sampling in the US, Belize, Nepal, and Senegal. 3) Summary statistics. New technology (camera trapping and molecular scatology) has been applied for occupancy analysis on4 US projects and 6 international projects. Occupancy modeling techniques and other distributional studieshave been published in6scientific publications, several reports, and2 theses, 1 dissertation. For abundance, density and survival studies we have applied new techniques to 4 US projects and9 international projects.Results have been published in9scientific publications, numerous reports, and3 theses,2 dissertations, and more are in progress on6 other projects. 4) Key outcomes.Changes in knowledge: All graduate students in my lab are required to take my advanced modeling course (Parameter Estimation). As a result, all graduate students using remote cameras or scat samplinghave adopted new techniques and data analysis. These techniques are now part of their tool kit. Changes in knowledge have occurred on the Sumatran tiger project. This occupancy analysis resulted in a key scientificpublication on tiger distribution across the landscape and a management plan for protection of the critically endangered Sumatran tiger. In addition, new records of species occurrences have been found for dholes (wild dogs) in Nepal and the brown-tailed mongoose in Madagascar.Changes in action: All completed graduate students have adopted techniques developed on this project and are using them in their current positions. Current graduate students are also using the techniques developed by previous graduate students further advancing the field. Changes in Condition: Using non-invasive surveying techniques has changed the way we conduct animal surveys meaning that we no longer have to capture and handle animals to mark them or collar them to gain basic demographic information. Capture and collaring risks injury to both humans and wildlife. Our non-invasive work is safer for the biologist and for the animals being studied, and usually results in larger sample sizes. An addition action change has resulted from our work in Nepal. The Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal now has the capacity, through training provided by this project, to conduct its own molecular scatology work in Nepal. See the Nepal Tiger Genome Project http://ntgp.org.np/.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Sunarto; Sollmann, R.; Mohamed, Z. and M.J. Kelly. 2013. Camera trapping for the study and conservation of tropical carnivores. Raffles Bulletin of Zoology. Supplement 28: 21-42
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Creel, S. et al. 2013. Conserving large populations of lions--the argument for fences has holes. Ecology Letters doi: 10.1111/ele.12145
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Dellinger, J.A.; *Proctor, C.; Steury, T.D.; Kelly, M.J. and M.R. Vaughan. 2013. Habitat use of a large carnivore, the red wolf, in a human-dominated landscape. Biological Conservation 157: 324-330.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thapa, K., Kelly, M., Karki, J., Subedhi, N. 2013. First Camera trap record of pack hunting dholes in Chitwan National Park. Canid Biology and Conservation 16: 4-7.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Sunarto, S; Kelly, M.J.; Vaughan, M; Klenzendorf, S.; Zulfahmi, Z.; Maju, H. and K. Parakkasi. 2013. Threatened tigers on the equator: multi-point abundance estimates in central Sumatra. Oryx 47: 211-220.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Farris, Z.J.; Kelly, M.J.; Karpanty, S.M.; Ratelolahy, F.; Andrianjakarivelo V. and C. Holmes. 2012. Photographic evidence of the brown-tailed mongoose (Salanoia concolor) in Makira Protected Area, Madagascar. Small Carnivore Conservation 47: 82-86.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Sunarto, S; Kelly, M.J.; Parakkasi, K.; Klenzendorf, S.; Septayuda, E. and H. Kurniawan. 2012. Tigers Need Cover: Multi-Scale Occupancy Study of the Big Cat in Sumatran Forest and Plantation Landscapes. PLoS One 7: 1-14
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Kelly, M.J.; Betsch, J.; Wultsch, C.; Mesa, J.B.; L.S. Mills. 2012. Non-invasive sampling for carnivores. Pps.47-69 in Carnivore Ecology and Conservation: A handbook of techniques. Boitani, L. and R. Powell (eds). Oxford University Press, Inc., New York.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Gerber, B.D.; Karpanty, S.M. and M.J. Kelly. 2012. Evaluating the potential bias in carnivore capture-recapture studies associated with the use of lure and varying density estimation techniques using photographic-sampling data of the Malagasy civet. Population Ecology 54: 43-54
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Wultsch, C.; Waits, L.P, and M.J. Kelly. 2014 Noninvasive Individual and Species Identification of Jaguars (Panthera onca), Pumas (Puma concolor) and Ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) in Belize, Central America using Cross-Species Microsatellites and Fecal DNA. Molecular Ecology Resources
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Thapa, K.; Shrestha, R.; Thapa, G.J.; Pradhan, N.; Dhakal, M.; Khanal, P. and M.J. Kelly. Under review. Leopard Panthera pardus fusca density in seasonally dry, sub-tropical forest in bhabhar of Parsa Wildlife Reserve in Terai Arc, Nepal. Oryx.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kelly, M.J.; Tshering, T. and Y. Wangdi. In Press. Camera trapping protocols for wildlife studies in Bhutan: with emphasis on tiger density estimation. In: Wildlife Research Techniques in Rugged Mountainous Asian Landscapes. Edited by Mills, L.S. and T. Tshering.


Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Thesis completed St. Germain, M.J. M.S. Bat Habitat Ecology Using Remote Acoustical Detectors at the Army National Guard Maneuver Training Center - Fort Pickett, Blackstone, Virginia. May 2012. Professional Presentations Montague, D.M. and M.J. Kelly. 2012. Seasonal Dietary Patterns of Carnivores in Western Virginia. Poster presentation at the 35th Annual Meeting of the Southeast Deer Study Group. Sandestin, FL. Farris, Z.J.; Gerber, B. Karpanty, S. and M.J. Kelly 2012. Investigating carnivore-primate population dynamics: Using camera-trapping and line transects to estimate carnivore and lemur population parameters across fragmented and contiguous rainforests in Madagascar. International Primate Society, Cancun, Mexico. Kelly, M.J.; Wultsch, C. and N. Bol. 2012. New, improved analyses - new numbers: How confident are we in past jaguar density estimates from remote camera trapping in Belize Natural Resources Management Symposium Belmopan, Belize, Central America. Wultsch, C.; Kelly, M.J. and L.P Waits. 2012. Noninvasive Tracking of Jaguars (Panthera onca) and Co-Occurring Wild Felids in Belize. Natural Resources Management Symposium Belmopan, Belize, Central America. Estienne, J.; Morin, D.J.; Kelly, M.J. and W.M. Ford. 2012. Evaluation of hair snares as a non-invasive method to collect molecular samples from coyotes (Canis latrans). Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship. Virginia Tech August 2012. Dalton, R.; Montague, D.M.; Kelly, M.J. and J. Parkhurst. 2012. Prey selection of coyotes in western VA. Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship. Virginia Tech August 2012. Reports Submitted Proctor, C; Trent, J.E.; Vaughan, M.R. and M.J. Kelly 2012. Evaluating potential effects of widening US 64 on red wolves in Washington, Tyrrell, and Dare Counties, North Carolina. Report to North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). Trent, J.E.; Proctor, C; Vaughan, M.R. and M.J. Kelly 2012. Evaluating Potential Effects of Widening US 64 on the Black Bear Population of Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, Dare County, North Carolina. Report to North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). Wultsch, C.; Proctor, C; Trent, J.E.; Vaughan, M.R. and M.J. Kelly. 2012. Wildlife Crossing Structures for Medium to Large-Sized Mammals: A Literature Review. Report to North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). Kelly, M.J. and S. Webster. 2012 Analysis of three years of jaguar (Panthera onca) surveys in unlogged versus sustainably logged areas of the Rio Bravo Conservation and Management Area (RBCMA): Hill Bank and La Milpa in Northern Belize. Report to Programme for Belize and to the Forest Department, Belize. Kelly, M.J.; Morin, D.J. and D.M. Montague. 2012. Ecology of the Appalachian Coyote: Population status, diet, habitat, spatial organization. Virginia Appalachian Coyote Study (VACS). Progress Report to the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. McShea, W.J.; Williamson, M.; Martini, B.; Dragon, J.; Cockrell, R. and M.J. Kelly. 2012. Impact of increased harvest levels on the distribution and harvest of deer within a CWD Containment Area: Year Two. Annual to the Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries. PARTICIPANTS: Marcella J. Kelly (PI) directed research associated with this project and supervised 9 graduate students and 9 undergraduates who received training during this period. Ph.D. students: Christine Proctor, Kanchan Thapa, Claudia Wultsch, Dana Morin, Zach Farris. M.S. Students: Bernardo Mesa, Michael St Germain, David Montague, Mamadou Daha Kane, Undergraduate students: Roxzanna Dalton, James Hody, Chris Rowe, Jacob Estienne, Stephen Perkins, Sarah Webster, Clark Dehart, Bryan Wills, Josh Kinkead Partner Organizations Mike Fies - Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries (VDGIF) Jaime Sajecki - Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries (VDGIF) Marek Smith - The Nature Conservancy Carol Croy, The US Forest Service. Workshops and professional development: 2011 - 2012: Nepal Tiger Genome Project at the Center for Molecular Dynamics, Nepal (CMDN). http://ntgp.org.np/ Non-invasive sampling for wildlife. Workshop 1: Attendees: approximately 30 park staff and field workers in Chitwan National Park; Nepal. Workshop 2: non-invasive sampling - design and analysis with CMDN staff, Kathmandu Nepal. Various talks on tiger conservation. Collaboration with VT, USAID, University of Idaho and CMDN to conserve tigers. The 26th Annual South East Furbearer Association field trip to Virginia Appalachian Coyote Study. May 2012. Outreach and education in scat sampling, trapping and coyote ecology. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for this work is field biologists, state agencies, and population modelers in the US and abroad working on elusive species, particularly carnivores. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
This study addresses issues of species detection and population size estimation, both necessities for wildlife management, across of variety of species and sites. This work has developed new methods for estimating animal population size through the use of scat-detector dogs combined with mark-recapture statistics. The study has opened new avenues for surveying animal populations through the use of genetic mark-recapture techniques from sampling scat (feces). Two new projects have sprung from the new techniques in survey design and mark-recapture. Namely, the Department of Game and Inland Fisheries has contacted my lab to conduct coyote and black bear non-invasive sampling for density estimation across 4 counties in Virginia. Additionally, the modified camera trapping techniques have been developed for new species and developed for new ways to incorporate habitat and landscape variables into models of species occurrence and activity levels. The project has expanded to use remote acoustic bat detectors combined with occupancy modeling to gain insight into bat species occurrence and community dynamics. Finally, this study gave us insight into how population size estimates derived from camera trapping could vary once you incorporate information from radio telemetry. This research project has resulted in technical advances in field methodology to determine demographic parameters and has resulted in advances in modeling techniques designed to enhance our understanding of wildlife presence and densities across various landscapes. In particular, we are now able to determine population size, density and occupancy from both camera-trap and genetic sampling. Additionally, we can determine genetic health (i.e. diversity and allelic richness), as well as connectivity and relatedness from scat sampling alone. This was not shown to be possible until recently and this project has been conducting cutting edge research advancing these new techniques and opening new doors into wildlife research.

Publications

  • Sunarto, S; Kelly, M.J.; Parakkasi, K.; Klenzendorf, S.; Septayuda, E. and H. Kurniawan. 2012. Tigers Need Cover: Multi-Scale Occupancy Study of the Big Cat in Sumatran Forest and Plantation Landscapes. PLoS One 7: 1-14.
  • Gerber, B.D.; Karpanty, S.M. and M.J. Kelly. 2012. Evaluating the potential biases in carnivore capture-recapture studies associated with the use of lure and varying density estimation techniques using photographic-sampling data of the Malagasy civet. Population Ecology 54: 43-54.
  • Kelly, M.J.; Betsch, J.; Wultsch, C.; Mesa, J.B.; L.S. Mills. 2012. Non-invasive sampling for carnivores. Pps.47-69 in Carnivore Ecology and Conservation: A handbook of techniques. Boitani, L. and R. Powell (eds). Oxford University Press, Inc., New York.


Progress 10/01/10 to 09/30/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Conderence Presentations include those listed under publications and: Esson, T; Proctor, C.; Vaughan, M.R. and M.J. Kelly. 2011. Highway-crossing patterns of red wolves along US 64, North Carolina. The Wildlife Society, Virginia State Chapter Meeting. February 2011; Sunarto and M.J. Kelly. 2010. Uncertainty in predicting species distribution: a case study of using four methods to map tiger occurrence in Central Sumatra. Organization of Fish & Wildlife Information Managers (OWFIM) annual meeting, St Louis, MO. October 2010, Mesa Cruz, J.B.; J.L. Brown, and M.J. Kelly. 2010. Environmental Fecal Glucocorticoid Degradation: Impacts for Non-invasive Assessment of Adrenal Activity in the Belizean Jaguar (Panthera onca). International Society of Wildlife Endocrinologists (ISWE); Cincinnati, OH November 2010; Davis, M.L. and M.J. Kelly. 2011. Carnivore habitat use and coexistence in Belize. British Ecological Society Tropical Ecology Group. April 2011; Kelly, M.J. 2011. Top Cat: Coexistence Ecology in Felids. Lions vs. Cheetahs and Jaguars vs. Pumas - Is There Really an Umbrella Species Mountain Lake Biological Station Seminar Series, University of Virginia. June 2011; Kelly, M.J. 2010. From cheetahs and lions to jaguars and pumas: Co-existence ecology in felids from savannahs to rainforest. North Carolina State University, Department of Biology Seminar Series. November 2010; Workshops 2010. Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environment (UWICE), Conference and Training Workshop - Bumthang, Bhutan, May 2010. Conducted in collaboration with the University of Montana. Workshop on "Wildlife Research Techniques in Rugged Mountainous Environments in Asia." Presentation: Wildlife Research Using Non-invasive remotely triggered cameras. This presentation was followed by a 4-day hands-on workshop where participants learned to set remote cameras in the field for various scientific purposes. Example data sheets were provided to aid in data organization. After the field exercise, participants reconvened in a computer lab to learn how to summarize data, calculate trap success, and estimate abundance/density using specialized software programs. PARTICIPANTS: Marcella J. Kelly (PI) directed research associated with this project and supervised 9 graduate students and 7 undergraduates who received training during this period. Ph.D. students: Christine Proctor, Kanchan Thapa, Claudia Wultsch, Zach Farris, Dana Morin M.S. Students: Bernardo Mesa, Michael St Germain, David Montague, Mamadou Dahe Kane Undergraduate students: Sarah Webster, Stephen Perkins, Rebecca Fraenkel, Kat Miles, Ankit Patel, James Hody, Brandon Plunkett TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for this work is field biologists and population modelers in the US and abroad working on elusive species, particularly carnivores. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
This study addresses issues of species detection and population size estimation, both necessities for wildlife management, across a variety of species and sites. This work has developed new methods for estimating animal population size through the use of scat-detector dogs combined with mark-recapture statistics. In particular, the work is now using aptially explicit mark-recapture models to advance our analysis of remote camera and molecular scatology data. The work has also modified camera trapping and scat colletion regimes for new species such as coyotes in Appalachia and developed new ways to incorporate habitat and landscape variables into models of species occurrence and activity levels. It uses remote acoustic bat detectors combined with occupancy modeling to gain insight into bat species occurrence and community dynamics. Finally, this study gave us insight into how population size estimates derived from camera trapping could vary once you incorporate information from radio telemetry. Overall this research has resulted in technical advances in field methodology to determine demographic parameters and has resulted in advances in modeling techniques designed to enhance our understanding of wildlife presence and densities across various landscapes. Finally, the work has resulted in a large scale assessment of how Sumatran tiger use forested and human dominated landscapes, as well as use co-species models to determine how predatores influence each other across a large landscape.

Publications

  • Wultsch, C.; Kelly, M.J. and L.P. Waits. 2011. Noninvasive Tracking of Jaguars (Panthera onca) and Co-occurring Felids by Combining Molecular Scatology, Remote Camera Trapping and GIS in Belize, Central America Conference Proceedings - WFA Mountain Lion Workshop 2011, Bozeman, MT, US
  • Kelly, M.J. and G.N. Stevens. 2011. Belize Education and Science Exchange Program. United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); International Science Exchange Program. Washington DC. June 2011.
  • Wultsch, C; Waits, L.P and M.J. Kelly. 2011. Noninvasive Monitoring of Elusive Jaguars (Panthera onca) and other Forest Felids in Belize, Central America: a powerful survey approach for the tropics. Wild Felid Association Summer 2011.
  • Wultsch, C. and M.J. Kelly 2010. Noninvasive tracking with jaguars and co-occurring felid species in Belize: Combining molecular scatology, remote camera trapping and GIS to Assess the impact of fragmentation. WCS - Science Digest, Summer 2010, pps 13-14.
  • Trent, J.A.; Vaughan, M. R. and M.J. Kelly. 2010. Evaluating Potential Effects of Widening US Highway 64 on the Black Bear Population of Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge, Dare County, North Carolina. International Bear News, Quarterly newsletter of the International Association for Bear Research and Management and the IUCN/SSC Bear specialist group, Nov 2010, 19: 19-20.
  • Kelly, M.J.; Betsch, J.; Wultsch, C.; Mesa, J.B.; L.S. Mills. 2011. Non-invasive survey methods for carnivores. in Research methods for carnivores. Boitani, L. and R. Powell (eds).
  • Maffei, L; Noss, A. J.; Silver, S. and M.J. Kelly. 2011. Remote Camera survey design and data analysis for jaguars.Pps. 119-144, in: Camera Traps in Animal Ecology: Methods and Analysis. A.F. OConnell, Jr. editor. Springer-Verlag.
  • Gerber, B.D.; Karpanty, S.M. and M.J. Kelly. 2011. Evaluating the potential bias in carnivore capture-recapture studies associated with the use of lure and varying density estimation techniques using photographic-sampling data of the Malagasy civet. Population Ecology. In Press. Davis, M.L.; Kelly, M.J. and D. F. Stauffer. 2011. Carnivore coexistence and habitat use in the Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve, Belize. Animal Conservation 14: 56-65.


Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Workshops: Instructor- recruiting workshop in Population Dynamics for the National Marine Fisheries Service. Designed to attract quantitative students to graduate school in Fisheries at VT to solve fisheries management projects related to population dynamics. Conference & training workshop Bumthang, Bhutan. Wildlife Research Techniques in Rugged Mountainous Asian Landscapes. Using Non-invasive remotely triggered cameras. 4-day hands-on workshop setting remote cameras in the field. Computer lab instruction in data analysis. Mentoring undergraduates: Drewitt, D. Movement ecology and road crossing of red wolves across highway 64, North Carolina. Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF). Esson, T. Monitoring Home Range and Movement Patterns of Red Wolves Along US Route 64, North Carolina. SURF program. Andresen, Leah. Estimating abundance/density of jaguars (Panthera onca) in the Rio Bravo Conservation Area using camera-traps and capture-recapture sampling. Everatt, Kristoffer. Estimating jaguar (Panthera onca) abundance and density for the Fireburn forest reserve and Balam Jungle estate in northern Belize using photographic capture-recapture sampling. Conferences: Kelly, M.J.; Wultsch, C.; Waits, L. and M Davis. A Comparative Study of Jaguar Densities via Simultaneous Scat Detector Dog and Remote Camera Trap Mark-Recapture Surveys in Belize, C.A. Carnivores 2009; Denver, CO. Wultsch, C.; Kelly, M.J. and L. Waits. Using Scat Detector Dogs and Molecular Scatology to Monitor Jaguars and other Elusive Feline Species Co-Occurring in Belize, C.A. Carnivores 2009; Denver, CO. Sunarto and M.J. Kelly. Variations in Tiger Abundance in Central Sumatra: Estimation across Forest Types in Southern Riau and Repeated Assessments in Tesso Nilo National Park. Society for Conservation Biology. University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. Products: J. Andrew Trent. M.S. Ecology, habitat use, and conservation of Asiatic black bears in the Min Mountains, Sichuan province China. Co-Chair with Dr. Michael Vaughan. Dissemination - general and scientific: Kelly, M.J. Co-existence ecology in felids: insights from African savannahs to neotropical rainforests. University of Kentucky, Lexington; KY. Kelly, M.J. Carnivore conservation and the ecology of co-existence - insights from African savannahs to neotropical rainforests. University of Montana Kelly, M.J. Population Sampling: Jungles, Jaguars and Scat Dogs. Department of Entomology, Virginia Tech. Kelly, M.J. From African savannahs to neotropical rainforests: insights into co-existence ecology in felids. Texas A & M, Kingsville, Ceasar Kleberg Wildlife Institute. Kingsville, TX Kelly, M.J. What does the future hold for big cats Ferrum College sustainability lecture series sponsored by School of Natural Sciences and Mathematics. Kelly, M.J. Rainforest to reef. Lecture Series, Belize of the Maya. Smithsonian Institution; Washington D.C. Kelly, M.J. Wild Cats of Belize - Portraits of Predators. Banquet Speaker: Texas Society of Mammalogists Annual Banquet. Junction, TX. February 2010 Kelly, M.J. Hunting" elusive jaguars with trip cameras and smart dogs. Faculty Women's Club Presentation. Blacksburg, VA. PARTICIPANTS: This project has provided substantial training and professional development. It has provided instruction in Population Dynamics for the National Marine Fisheries Service, designed to attract quantitative students to graduate school in Fisheries at VT to solve fisheries management projects related to population dynamics. It has also overseen, and provided equipment and direction for an annual remote camera trap study in Giles County VA since 2004 in collaboration with the Student Chapter of the Wildlife Society of Virginia Tech for which the PI is the faculty advisor. Collaborators include: Sarah Karpanty, Virginia Tech; Jim Nichols, USGS; Lisette Waits University of Idaho - Conservation genetics lab; Scott Mills - Univeristy of Montana; Dibesh Karmacharya - Center for molecular dynamics Nepal; Tom Hammet - Virginia Tech. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: This project is now expanding to include a study on the ecoogy of the Appalachian Coyote through remote camera and genetic mark-recapture techniques, spatial ecology and diet.

Impacts
This project has led to change in knowledge with regard to survey design for molecular mark-recapture for the purposes of abundance estimation for wildlife species. This project has determined survey effort required and DNA amplification success rates for wildlife studies using scat collection as the means to obtain data. This study has also allowed information transfer of field techniques in remote camera technology to the general public and global carnivore community, improving skills of field biologist. It has led to comparative data analysis of previous techniques in density estimation to newer techniques that incorporate spatially explicit mark-recapture techniques. The study also examines wildlife movement across roads to determine road permeability and build predictive models of animal road crossings to inform decisions regarding where to place wildlife crossing structures (e.g. overpasses and underpasses). This enhance wildlife protecting and public heath through reduced vehicle-wildlife collisions. Change in actions have occurred in the form of applying new skills in study design for remote cameras. Projects in the US and abroad have adopted similar remote camera study designs based on the findings of this project. The North Carolina Department of transportation will likely place wildlife crossing structures based on the results and modeling of this project. This project led to the substantial development of population density estimation through innovative, non-invasive techniques such as remote mark-recapture and molecular scatology. This project also will be instrumental in developing, and contributing to, the emerging discipline of road ecology and the assessment of road permeability to ameliorate human-wildlife conflict.

Publications

  • Waight, I,; Andresen, L. and M.J. Kelly. 2010 The impact of sustainable logging on jaguar (Panthera onca) densities and trap success rates of other mid- to large wildlife speices in the Rio Bravo Conservation and Management Area (RBCMA), Hillbank and La Milpa in Northern Belize. Report to Forest Department, Belize, and Programme for Belize.
  • Everatt, K.; Andresen, L. and M.J. Kelly 2010. Jaguar (Panthera onca) abundance and density for the Fireburn Reserve and Balam Na Jungle Estate in northern Belize using photographic capture-recapture sampling Report to Forest Department, Belize, and Wildtracks.
  • Stevens, G.; Hammett. T.H.; Fell, R., and M.J. Kelly. 2009. Rainforest to Reef: Study Abroad in Belize. Engagement Matters 1(6), pages 2-3. Engagement Matters, Sept. 2009.


Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Workshop trainings 2008 and 2009: Research and Capacity Building. WCS , Madagascar: 2 workshops designed to build a camera trapping biodiversity survey program for Masoala Reserve emphasis on rare terrestrial mammals. 2008-2009. Undergraduate mentoring and instruction in camera trapping for wildlife purposes. Mountain Lake Biological Station. Every weekend: August 29th-November 8th. Local Organizer/Host for the Joint Meeting of the Northeastern Bat Working Group, Southeastern Bat working Group, and Colloquium for the Conservation of Mammals in the Southeastern United States. Blacksburg, Virginia, February 19-21 2008.(St. Germain, M. J.) Symposia Wultsch, C. and M.J. Kelly 2009. Using Scat Dogs and Remote Cameras to Estimate Jaguar Density and Connectivity in Belize. XIII Congress of the Mesoamerican Society for Biology and Conservation: Belize City, October 26-30, 2009. Felids in Mesoamerica Symposium. Davis, M.L. and M. J. Kelly 2009. Using camera traps to evaluate the influence of habitat features and relative abundance of predators and prey on co-occurring felids across study sites in Belize. 10th International Mammalogical Congress August 9-14, Mendoza, Argentina. IMC10 Symposium: Camera Traps and Mammal population dynamics: advances in estimation and modeling techniques Esson, T.; Kelly, M.J. and C. Proctor. 2009. Monitoring Home Range and Movement Patterns of Red Wolves Along US Route 64, North Carolina. Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship: Research symposium. August. Conference Presentations Kelly, M.J.; Wultsch, C.; Waits. L. and M.L. Davis. 2009. A Comparative Study of Jaguar Densities via Simultaneous Scat Detector Dog and Remote Camera Trap Mark-Recapture Surveys in Belize, C.A. Carnivores 2009: Carnivore conservation in a changing world. Nov. 15-18, 2009. Wultsch, C.; Kelly, M. and L. Waits. 2009. Using Scat Detector Dogs and Molecular Scatology to monitor Jaguars and other Elusive Feline Species Co-Occurring in Belize, Central America. Carnivores 2009: Carnivore conservation in a changing world. Nov. 15-18, 2009. Carter J. and M.J. Kelly 2009. Long term camera trapping on Salt Pond Mountain, Virginia. The Wildlife Society Annual Meeting. Monterey, California. September 2009. St. Germain, M. J., M. J. Kelly. 2009. Determining Bat Activity Across the Landscape. National Military Fish and Wildlife Association Conference, Crystal City, Virginia, March 20 2009. St. Germain, M. J., M. J. Kelly. 2009. Rapid Bio-assessment Methods for Bats in Virginia, Virginia State Wildlife Society Conference, Charlottesville, Virginia, February 6 2009. Carter, J and M.J. Kelly 2008. Use of Remote Camera to Assess Trap Success and Habitat Use for Large Mammals on Salt Pond Mountain, Giles County Virginia. The Wildlife Society Annual Meeting. Miami, Florida. November 2008. PARTICIPANTS: Marcella J. Kelly (PI) directed research associated with this project and supervised 8 graduate students and 9 undergraduates who received training during this period. Ph.D. students: Christine Proctor, Sunarto, Kanchan Thapa, Catherine Tredick, Claudia Wultsch M.S. Students: Miranda Davis, Bernardo Mesa, Michael St Germain. Undergraduate students: Jake Carter, Casey Carbaugh, Kyle Waters, Jacob McPherson, Joe Cline, Tommy Esson, Stacey Weinstock, Kenny Erwin, Caitlin Harris TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for this work is field biologists and population modelers in the US and abroad working on elusive species, particularly carnivores. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
This study addresses issues of species detection and population size estimation, both necessities for wildlife management, across of variety of species and sites. This work has developed new methods for estimating animal population size through the use of scat-detector dogs combined with mark-recapture statistics. It also modified camera trapping techniques for new species and developed new ways to incorporate habitat and landscape variables into models of species occurrence and activity levels. It used remote acoustic bat detectors combined with occupancy modeling to gain insight into bat species occurrence and community dynamics. Finally, this study gave us insight into how population size estimates derived from camera trapping could vary once you incorporate information from radio telemetry. Overall this research has resulted in technical advances in field methodology to determine demographic parameters and has resulted in advances in modeling techniques designed to enhance our understanding of wildlife presence and densities across various landscapes.

Publications

  • Davis, M.L.; Kelly, M.J. and D. F. Stauffer. 2010. Carnivore coexistence and habitat use in the Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve, Belize. Animal Conservation. In Press.
  • Maffei, L; Noss, A. J.; Silver, S. and M.J. Kelly. 2010. Remote Camera survey design and data analysis for jaguars. In: Camera Traps in Animal Ecology: Methods and Analysis. A.F. O'Connell, Jr. editor. Springer-Verlag. In Press.
  • Kelly, M.J. and S. Silver 2009. The suitability of the jaguar (Panthera onca) for reintroduction. Pp.187-205 in Hayward, M.W. and M.J. Somers (eds.). Reintroduction of top-order predators. John Wiley and Sons; Oxford, UK.
  • Berkson, J.; Hudy, S.F.; McMullin, S.L.; Murphy, B.R.; Prager, M.H.; Kelly, M.J. and N Thompson. 2009. Addressing the shortage of stock assessment scientists through undergraduate workshops. Fisheries 34: 220-227.
  • Kelly, M.J. 2008. Design, evaluate, refine: camera trap studies for elusive species Animal Conservation 11: 182-184.
  • Dillon, A. and M.J. Kelly. 2008. Ocelot home range, overlap and density: comparing radio telemetry with camera trapping. Journal of Zoology (London) 275: 391-398.
  • Kelly, M.J.; Noss, A.J.; Arispe L., R.; Di Bitetti, M.; De Angelo, C.D.; Paviolo, A.; Di Blanco, Y.E.; and L. Maffei. 2008. Estimating puma densities from remote cameras across 3 study sites: Bolivia, Argentina, and Belize. Journal of Mammalogy 89: 408-418.
  • Kelly M. J. and E.L. Holub. 2008. Camera trapping carnivores: Trap success among camera types and across species, and habitat selection by species on salt pond mountain, Giles Co., VA. Northeastern Naturalist 15:249-262.
  • Laver, P.N. and M.J. Kelly. 2008. A critical review of home range studies. Journal of Wildlife Management.72: 290-298.
  • Popular articles Kelly, M.J.; Davis, M.L.; Mesa, B. and C. Wultsch. 2009. A synergistic approach to jaguar conservation and management in Belize. Wild Felid Monitor 2: 17.