Source: UNIV OF WISCONSIN submitted to
DESIGNING EFFECTIVE POLICIES TO MANAGE THE SPATIAL CONFIGURATION OF PRIVATE FOREST LAND
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0206186
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
WIS01033
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jan 1, 2006
Project End Date
Dec 31, 2007
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Lewis, D.
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF WISCONSIN
21 N PARK ST STE 6401
MADISON,WI 53715-1218
Performing Department
AGRI & APPLIED ECONOMICS
Non Technical Summary
Habitat fragmentation is a consequence of land use change and is a primary threat to terrestrial biodiversity. This project develops a methodology for analyzing habitat fragmentation under alternative market conditions and incentive-based policy scenarios.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
33%
Applied
67%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1230699301033%
1360699301033%
6050699301034%
Knowledge Area
123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources; 136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity; 605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
In this project I develop and refine a methodology for analyzing landscape pattern under alternative market conditions and incentive-based policy scenarios. The primary objective of the project is to investigate the effects of incentive policies on the spatial configuration of forests in regions dominated by private landownership. This project also has the following supporting objectives. First, quantify and compare the costs of achieving given changes in landscape metrics with the theoretically-optimal conservation strategy, in addition to uniform and targeted afforestation subsidies. Second, evaluate how the costs of uniform and targeted subsidies vary with initial landscape configurations. Third, evaluate how the costs of uniform and targeted subsidies vary with different landscape metrics. Fourth, determine whether there are threshold values of landscape metrics at which the incremental costs of changing the metric fall rapidly. Lastly, explore opportunities to apply the empirical model to Wisconsin and the Great Lakes region.
Project Methods
The project consists of three primary steps: 1) development and refinement of an analytical model to determine an optimal landscape conservation strategy, 2) development and refinement of an empirical methodology to relate incentive-based policies to the spatial configuration of landscapes, and 3) an examination of the efficiency of alternative policy approaches. A theoretical model of land use is developed to analyze an efficient ecological restoration strategy to increase core forest and reduce edge effects. The model is particularly relevant for incentive-based policies where the conservation agency can control the total amount of restoration, but not its exact spatial location. The model is analytical and results in a set of rules to help target conservation efforts for reducing habitat fragmentation. Example policies which this could be relevant to include the Conservation Reserve Program and the Wildlife Habitat Incentive Program, both run through USDA. I also develop an empirical model to predict the spatial configuration of landscape change. The work is noteworthy for its integration of econometric land-use models with GIS-based landscape simulation models. I simulate the effects of incentive-based policies on forest fragmentation and calculate the costs of reducing fragmentation through forest restoration policies. The study area for this model is the coastal plain of South Carolina, but I intend to explore applying the method to other regions, such as the upper Midwest. Lastly, I intend to test the theoretical targeting rules with the empirical model and compare the costs of achieving given landscape objectives across policy designs.

Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/07

Outputs
OUTPUTS: There have been 7 professional research seminars generated by this project. The seminars have been delivered to disciplinary audiences, as well as audiences of natural resource managers: 2007 Seminars: -Applied Economics Workshop, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (February). -School of Public Policy Seminar, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (February). -68th Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference, Madison, WI (December). 2006 Seminars: -Camp Resources, Wilmington, NC (August). -Department of Applied Economics Seminar, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN (March). -Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting, Boston, MA (January). 2005 Seminars: -Applied Economics Workshop, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (November). The PI has also incorporated insights from this project into undergraduate education in natural resource and environmental economics courses. In terms of publications, this project has generated 2 publications, 1 manuscript completed and submitted for publication consideration, and 1 M.S. thesis. In addition, this project has provided the foundation for a much larger multi-disciplinary project that has recently developed between economists and ecologists. PARTICIPANTS: The following individuals worked explicitly on the project: David Lewis (PI), Van Butsic (Research Assistant), and Eric Horsch (Research Assistant). PI Lewis supervised all work and performed many of the econometric and simulation analyses. RA Butsic managed the spatial data, assisted in model development, and in identifying opportunities to apply the methodology to Wisconsin. RA Butsic completed an MS thesis based on the project. RA Horsch has provided assistance in applying the methodology to Wisconsin and managed additional spatial data. RA Horsch is expected to complete an MS thesis - partially related to the project - in August of 2008. The following individuals collaborated on various aspects of the project: Andrew Plantinga (Oregon State University), JunJie Wu (Oregon State University), Bill Provencher (University of Wisconsin), Ralph Alig (U.S. Forest Service), and Henry Eichman (U.S. Bureau of Land Management). All collaborators assisted in the analysis of data and in the preparation of manuscripts related to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences for this project include academics (economists and ecologists in particular), land managers, and conservationists interested in wildlife and the management of biological diversity. In addition, information generated from this project has been used in the PI's undergraduate and graduate courses in natural resource and environmental economics. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes were requried.

Impacts
There have been multiple methodological advances developed during the course of this project that have provided new fundamental and applied knowledge. First and foremost, this project has been the first comprehensive economic analysis of using voluntary conservation incentives to reduce wildlife habitat fragmentation - a primary factor in global biodiversity loss. The technical foundations developed here are already being employed in other economic analyses of wildlife and biodiversity conservation policies. Second, the project has developed a method for translating econometric land-use transition probabilities estimated at the parcel-scale to broader landscape patterns through the use of a GIS-based landscape simulation technique. While this method has been developed for analyzing wildlife habitat, the approach is more general and has provided a foundation for future analyses of land-use change regarding urban sprawl, lakeshore development, agricultural conversion, and others. Third, new fundamental knowledge has been generated by the development of optimal conservation targeting rules for reducing wildlife habitat fragmentation with voluntary incentive-based land use policies. The theoretical foundation developed here provides a general methodology for examining spatial interactions amongst a discrete set of agents. Fourth, opportunities to apply the basic methodological foundation to Wisconsin have been identified, and preliminary work on lakeshore development in northern Wisconsin has been completed. Last, this project has contributed to the development of an integrated multi-disciplinary project that has linked economic and ecological analyses to examine the effects of voluntary land-use incentive policies on biological diversity.

Publications

  • Lewis, D.J., Plantinga, A.J., and J. Wu. 2007. Targeting Incentives to Reduce Habitat Fragmentation. Working Paper (Manuscript in review).
  • Butsic, V. 2007. An Analysis of Lakefront Land Conversion in Vilas County, Wisconsin. M.S. Thesis, Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison.
  • Lewis, D.J., and A.J. Plantinga. 2007. Policies for Habitat Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations. Land Economics, 83(2): 109-127.
  • Plantinga, A.J., Alig, R.J., Eichman, H., and D.J. Lewis. 2007. Linking Land-Use Projections and Forest Fragmentation Analysis. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-570. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Station, 41p.


Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06

Outputs
In this research, I analyze incentive-based policies designed to reduce forest fragmentation. I develop an emprical approach that integrates an econometric model of land use with simulations that predict the spatial pattern of land-use change. I then analyze how subsidies for afforestation affect distributions defined over fragmentation metrics and derive the marginal costs of altering landscape pattern. I find that the costs of reducing fragmentation vary greatly with initial landscape conditions and that a simple uniform subsidy appears to perform well relative to a more complicated spatially-targeted policy. A paper is forthcoming in the journal Land Economics summarizing these findings. I also develop a theoretical foundation for considering the optimal incentive-based policy design for reducing habitat fragmentation. In this model, a regulator knows the distribution of opportunity costs across a landscape, but not the opportunity costs on any particular parcel. I show that the expected social benefits are a convex function of a given change in forest, implying that the regulator's optimal policy can involve a corner solution. I then test the likelihood of corner solutions using the empirical model of land use change. I find empirical evidence that fragmentation is reduced at an increasing rate as a landscape becomes increasingly forested, and thus support for the efficiency of increasingly-targeted conservation efforts to relatively small landscapes. A paper summarizing these findings will be submitted for publication consideration in winter of 2007.

Impacts
Results from this project will have implications for policy-makers and for researchers. First, since this is the first project to evaluate the effects of incentive-based policies on habitat fragmentation, results can be used to help guide policy makers in the design of conservation policy. Second, the theoretical and empirical methodology developed in this project will be applicable to future research regarding land use change and wildlife conservation.

Publications

  • Lewis, D.J., and A.J. Plantinga. 2007. "Policies for Forest Fragmentation: Combining Econometrics with GIS-Based Landscape Simulations." Forthcoming in Land Economics.