Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the five-year period of this project, I have completed the following activities, events, services and products that reach people: Activities: I have mentored 4 master and 2 PhD students to graduate, to work on projects on population dynamics of marine and freshwater species. Events: My students and I have given more than 50 talks at national and international conferences. I served on multiple review and advisory panels. I also served as a member of the Scientific and Statistical Committees of both the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council and the Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council. I also serve on the stock assessment subcommittee for weakfish, of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Products: My students and I developed multiple stock assessment models for Atlantic hammerhead sharks, yellow perch in Lake Erie and Atlantic weakfish. Among my graduate students, Chris Hayes developed stock assessment for hammerhead sharks; Qing He and Yan Li developed a method of adaboost to standardize catch rate for commercial and recreational species, and bycatch for species under conservation; Hao Yu developed a simulation study to compare the sampling methods of stratified sampling and three adaptive samplings for fishery independent surveys in Lake Erie; Yan Li developed a method to assess gear saturation of gillnet in Lake Erie; Yan Li also used the AdaBoost method to assess bycatch of gillnet fishery in Lake Erie and paper has been accepted for publication. Postdoc Andreas Winter and graduate student Yan Li developed bycatch models for Atlantic seabird. These research outcomes have been published during this year period. At the same time, graduate students are making good progresses on their projects. Dissemination: My students and I distributed educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, California Department of Fish and Game, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PARTICIPANTS: Chris Hayes, my graduate student who worked on the hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment project. Hao Yu, my graduate student who worked on the yellow perch population dynamics and stock assessment project. Qing He, my graduate student who worked on model comparison of age-aggregated model. Yan Li, my graduate student who works on bycatch of gillnet assessment. Andreas Winter, postdoc, who worked on spatial dynamics of walleye in Lake Erie and weakfish along mid-Atlantic. Mike Errigo, postdoc, who worked on model complexity and stock assessment quality project. Kevin Reid, Fishery Biologist, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario. Canada, N0P 1A0. Rob O'Reilly, Virginia Marine Resources Commission. Eric Smith, Statistics Department, Virginia Tech. Don Orth, Fisheries Department, Virginia Tech. I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. TARGET AUDIENCES: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
My research outcomes/impacts from the last five years were mainly in effect as changes in knowledge with some of new approaches used or recommended to be used in fisheries stock assessment, and developed a new high level graduate course. I developed the hierarchical population growth model for species complex, using the example of hammerhead sharks; developed nonstationary model to incorporate different natural mortality variation patterns over time in a statistical catch-at-age framework. Manuscripts on this work have been published in top journals such as Ecological Application and ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. Hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment results have been transferred into a thesis (Chris Hayes), and publications. The stock assessment models and results have been communicated to the National Marine Fisheries Services and are used for stock assessment purposes. The stock assessment of Atlantic weakfish has been presented through a workshop organized by our team at Virginia Tech, and further presented to the weakfish Technical Committee.

Publications

• Li., Y., Browder, J. and Jiao, Y. 2012. Hook effects on seabird bycatch in the United States Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Bulletin of Marine Science. 88: 559-569.
• Jiao, Y., Smith, E., OReilly, R., and Orth, D. 2012. Modeling nonstationary natural mortality in catch-at-age models: an example using the Atlantic weakfish (Cynoscion regalis) fishery. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 69:105-118.

Progress 10/01/10 to 09/30/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the last year, I have completed the following activities, events, services and products that reach people: Activities: I'm mentoring 4 master and 2 PhD students, to work on projects on population dynamics of marine and freshwater species. Besides mentoring these students I taught 1 graduate course, Fish Population Dynamics and Modeling, and one senior undergraduate course, Marine Ecology. Events: My students and I have given 10 talks at national and international conferences. I served the SEDAR21 advisory panel. I also served as a member of the Scientific and Statistical Committees of both the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council and the Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council. I also serve on the stock assessment subcommittee for weakfish, of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Products: I developed a comprehensive operational stock assessment framework for Atlantic weakfish. Postdoc Andreas Winter and graduate student Yan Li developed bycatch models for Atlantic seabird. Among my graduate students, Qing He and Yan Li developed a method of adaboost to standardize catch rate for commercial and recreational species, and bycatch for species under conservation. Hao Yu developed a simulation study to compare the sampling methods of stratified sampling and three adaptive samplings for fishery independent surveys in Lake Erie. Yan Li developed a method to assess gear saturation of gillnet in Lake Erie; she also used the AdaBoost method to assess bycatch of gillnet fishery in Lake Erie and paper has been accepted for publication. These research outcomes have been published during this year period. At the same time, graduate students are making good progresses on their projects. Dissemination: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the California Department of Fish and Game, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PARTICIPANTS: Chris Hayes, my graduate student who worked on the hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment project. Hao Yu, my graduate student who worked on the yellow perch population dynamics and stock assessment project. Qing He, my graduate student who worked on model comparison of age-aggregated model. Yan Li, my graduate student who works on bycatch of gillnet assessment. Andreas Winter, postdoc, who worked on spatial dynamics of walleye in Lake Erie and weakfish along mid-Atlantic. Mike Errigo, postdoc, who worked on model complexity and stock assessment quality project. Kevin Reid, Fishery Biologist, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario. Canada, N0P 1A0. Rob O'Reilly, Virginia Marine Resources Commission. John Walters, NOAA, Southwest Fisheries Science Center. Eric Smith, Statistics Department, Virginia Tech. Don Orth, Fisheries Department, Virginia Tech. I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. TARGET AUDIENCES: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
My research outcomes/impacts from the last year are mainly in effect as changes in knowledge with some of new knowledge/approaches used or recommended to be used in fisheries stock assessment, and developed a new high level graduate course. I developed the hierarchical population growth model for species complex, using the example of hammerhead sharks. One manuscript on this work is published with the ICES Journal of Marine Sciences last year. Another has been reviewed and is published by Ecological Application this year. Hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment results have been transferred into a thesis (Chris Hayes), and publications. The stock assessment models and results have been communicated to the National Marine Fisheries Services and is used for stock assessment purposes. One paper led by Chris Hayes has been published in North American Fisheries Management. The approach of using hierarchical models to assess fish complex has been recommended by the STAR committee to Northeast Fisheries Science Center for rockfish fish complex stock assessments. The stock assessment of Atlantic weakfish has been presented through a workshop organized by our team at Virginia Tech, and further presented to weakfish Technical Committee this summer. It is recommended by the Technical committee to be used for the next stock assessment. A paper on weakfish nonstationary natural mortality modeling in the statistical catch-at-age framework has been accepted for publication by ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. Another 3 are either under review or under preparation.

Publications

• Leaf, R., Jiao, Y., Murphy, B., Kramer, J., and Sorensen, K. 2011. Life history characteristics of Japanese medaka Oryzias latipes. Copeia (in press).
• Li, Y., Jiao, Y. and Reid, K. 2011. Assessment of landed and non-landed by-catch of walleye, yellow perch and white perch from the commercial gillnet fisheries of Lake Erie, 1994-2007. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 37:325-334.
• Yu, H., Jiao, Y. and Winter, A. 2011. Catch rate standardization of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in Lake Erie: a comparison between the Generalized Linear Model, Spatial Generalized Linear Model, and Generalized Additive Model. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society. 140:905-918.
• Li, Y., and Jiao, Y. 2011. Influences of gillnet fishing on lake sturgeon bycatch in Lake Erie and implications in conservation. Endangered Species Research 13:253-261.
• Roberts, J.H., Jiao, Y., Angermeier, P.L., and Albanese, B.W. 2011. Linking Individual Fish Movement to the Demographics and Genetics of Populations. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Seattle, Washington.
• Li, Y., Jiao, Y., and Browder, J. 2011. Effects of hook type and hook size on seabird bycatch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fisheries, 1992-2009. International Symposium on Circle Hooks. Miami, FL, USA.
• Hua, D., Jones, J., Neves, R.J., and Jiao, Y. 2011. Propagation, release and monitoring of juvenile mussels of two endangered species Epioblasm capsaeformis, E. brevidens and two common species in the Clinch and Powell rivers, TN and VA. Freshwater Mollusk Conservation Society Symposium, Louisville, KY
• Jiao. Y. 2011. Detect temporal variations of population growth rate. Ecological Society of American Annual Meeting. Austin, TX.
• Jiao, Y., Smith. E., OReilly, R. and Orth, D. 2011. Modeling nonstationary natural mortality in catch-at-age models. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Seattle, Washington.
• Jiao, Y. and OReilly, R. 2011. Modeling long term population productivity variation using nonstationary surplus production models. ICES annual science conference. Gdansk, Poland.
• Jiao, Y., Orth, D., Smith. E., and OReilly, R. 2011. Bayesian learning and updating in selecting catch-at-age stock assessment models and its implications for population projections in the face of uncertainty. ICES annual science conference. Gdansk, Poland.
• Reid. K., Meisenheimer, P.J.R., Jiao, Y., and Nudds, T. 2011. The decision analysis and adaptive management (DAAM) projects: evolution of a fishing industry/academic partnership. Canadian Conference for Fisheries Research, Toronto, CA.
• Yu, H., Jiao, Y., Su, Z., and Reid, K. 2011. Performance comparison of traditional sampling designs and adaptive sampling designs for fishery-independent surveys: a simulation study. Fisheries Research (accepted)
• Jiao, Y. Cortes, E., Andrews, K. and Guo, F. 2011. Poor-data and data-poor species stock assessment using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. Ecological Applications 21:2691-2708

Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the last year, I have completed the following activities, events, services and products that reach people: Activities: I recruited three master students (Irene Ballesta, Man Tang, Matt Vincent) and one PhD student (Yan Li), to work on 4 projects on population dynamics of marine and freshwater species. My PhD students, Hao Yu and Robert Leaf have graduated this summer and both are working as postdocs now (one in U. Maryland, One in NOAA). Besides mentoring these students I taught 2 graduate courses, Fish Population Dynamics and Modeling, and Advanced Quantitative Method in Fisheries and Conservation Biology, and one senior undergraduate course, Marine Ecology. Events: My students and I have given 10 talks at national and international conferences. I was invited to serve the SEDAR21 advisory panel. I also served as an member of the Scientific and Statistical Committees of both the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council and the Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council. I also serve on the stock assessment subcommittee for weakfish, of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Products: My students and postdoc developed catch rate standardization models for Atlantic weakfish, and dynamics and stock assessment models for the hammerhead shark population. Among my graduate students, Qing He developed a method of adaboost to standardize catch rate for commercial and recreational species, and by catch for species under conservation. Qing also evaluated the value of the process error in the age-aggragated models. Hao Yu developed a simulation study to compare the sampling methods of stratified sampling and three adaptive samplings for fishery indepdendent surveys in Lake Erie. Yan Li developed a method to assess gear saturation of gillnet in Lake Erie; she also used the AdaBoost method to assess by catch of gillnet fishery in Lake Erie and paper has been accepted for publication. Postdoc Andreas Winter evaluated the seabird by catch from the pelagic long line fishery in Atlantic area. Postdoc Mike Errigo evaluated the value of the process error in the age-structured analysis. Dissemination: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PARTICIPANTS: Chris Hayes, my graduate student who works on the hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment project. Hao Yu, my graduate student who works on the yellow perch population dynamics and stock assessment project. Qing He, my graduate student who works on model comparison of age-aggregated model. Yan Li, my graduate student who works on bycatch of gillnet assessment. Andreas Winter, postdoc, who worked on spatial dynamics of walleye in Lake Erie and weakfish along mid-Atlantic. Mike Errigo, postdoc, who worked on model complexity and stock assessment quality project. Kevin Reid, Fishery Biologist, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario. Canada, N0P 1A0. Rob O'Reilly, Virginia Marine Resources Commission. Eric Smith, Statistics Department, Virginia Tech. Don Orth, Fisheries Department, Virginia Tech. TARGET AUDIENCES: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by collaborating with their staffs, giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through teleconferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
My research outcomes/impacts from the last year are mainly in effect as changes in knowledge with some of new knowledge/approaches used or recommended to be used in fisheries stock assessment, and developed a new high level graduate course. I developed the hierarchical population growth model for species complex, using the example of hammerhead sharks. One manuscript on this work is published with the ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. Another has been reviewed by Ecological Application. Hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment results have been transferred into a thesis (Chris Hayes), and publications. The stock assessment models and results have been communicated to the National Marine Fisheries Services. One paper led by Chris Hayes has been published in North American Fisheries Management; another one is currently in review by Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science. The approach of using hierarchical models to assess fish complex has been recommended by the STAR committee to Northeast Fisheries Science Center for rock fish complex stock assessments. The stock assessment of red abalone has passed the peer review and is recommended to be used as the operational model in the future; a new contract is developing between CDFG and VT to evaluate the possible management strategies of SMI red abalone. I also developed a Bayesian risk assessment approach to incorporate uncertainty in harvest control rules. The manuscript on this work has been published. A paper on influence of measurement error in fisheries is under review by Ecological Modeling.

Publications

• Jiao, Y. Rogers-Bennett, L., Taniguchi, I., Butler. J., and Crone, P. 2010. Incorporating temporal variation in the growth of red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) using hierarchical Bayesian growth model. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 67: 730-742.
• *Li, Y., Jiao, Y., and He, Q. 2010. Decreasing uncertainty in catch rate analysis using Delta-AdaBoost: an alternative approach in catch and bycatch analyses with high percentage of zeros. Fisheries Research (in press).
• *Li, Y., and Jiao, Y. 2010. Influences of gillnet fishing on lake sturgeon by catch in Lake Erie and implications in conservation. Endangered Species Research (accepted).
• Jiao, Y., OReilly, R., Smith, E., and Orth, D. 2010. Develop a Bayesian hierarchical spatially structured model to integrate different survey indices into a statistical catch-at-age model for the Atlantic weakfish (Cynoscion regalis). ICES annual science conference. Nantes, France.
• Jiao, Y., Smith, E., OReilly, R., and Orth, D. 2010. Test hypotheses of nonstationary population dynamics through Bayesian model selection among statistical catch-at-age models: an example using Atlantic weakfish (Cynoscion regalis) fishery. ICES annual science conference. Nantes, France (poster).
• Jiao, Y., Reid, K., and Nudds, T. 2010. Incorporating Bayesian model selection into Bayesian decision making in fisheries management. International Association of Great Lakes Research annual meeting, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (invited)
• Reid, K. Jiao, Y., Tsiplova, K., and Nudds, T. 2010. Bioeconomic evaluation of harvest control rules for Lake Erie walleye fishery. International Association of Great Lakes Research annual meeting, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
• *Yu, H., and Jiao, Y. 2010. Performance comparison of generalized linear model, generalized additive model and spatial interpolation for standardization of catch rate through a simulation study. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
• *He, Q., and Jiao, Y. 2010. Investigating the performance of process-observation error estimator and robust estimators in surplus production model: a simulation study. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
• *Li, Y., and Jiao, Y. 2010. Gillnet bycatch and discard assessments of walleye, yellow perch and white perch from Lake Erie commercial fisheries. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
• **Yu, H., Jiao, Y., Su, Z., and Reid, K. 2010. Performance comparison of traditional sampling designs and adaptive sampling designs for fishery-independent surveys. International Association of Great Lakes Research annual meeting, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
• **Winter, A., Jiao, Y., and Browder, J.A. 2010. Modeling low rates of seabird bycatch in the U.S. Atlantic longline fishery. 1st World Seabird Conference. Victoria, BC, Canada. (poster)
• Tsiplova, K., Jiao Y., Reid, K., and Nudd, T. 2010. Bioeconomic Evaluation of Harvest Control Rules for Lake Erie Walleye Fishery. Canadian Conference for Fisheries Research, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
• **Li, Y., Jiao, Y., and Reid, K. 2009. Gillnet saturation in Lake Erie: effects of soak time and fish accumulation on catch-per-unit-effort of walleye and yellow perch. AFS Virginia Chapter annual meeting. Blacksburg, VA.

Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the last year, I have completed the following activities, events, services and products that reach people: Activities: I recruited two master students, Yan Li and Qing He, to work on a gillnet bycatch analysis, and model complexity and stock assessment quality. My PhD student, Hao Yu, developed and compared several kinds of commonly used and newly innovated models for assessing fishery catch rates using the yellow perch gillnet survey data. Besides mentoring these students, I also guided one postdoc, Andreas Winter, to work on the spatial dynamics of walleye fisheries in Lake Erie and weakfish in the Atlantic. This year, I recruited another new postdoc, Mike Errigo, to work on model complexity and stock assessment quality with focus on age structured models. I taught one graduate course, Fish Population Dynamics and Modeling, and one senior undergraduate course, Marine Ecology. At the same time I developed a new graduate course, Advanced Quantitative Methods in Fisheries and Conservation Biology. Events: My students and I have given 8 talks at national and international conferences. I was invited to present 2 talks at National Academies and NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center. Services: I sit on the peer review panel for 2 marine species, bronzonspotted rockfish and greenspotted rockfish, organized by Southwest Fisheries Science Center, and 1 population dynamics methodology workshops organized by Northwest Fisheries Science Center. I also served as an invited member of the Scientific and Statistical Committees of both the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council and the Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Council. I also serve on the stock assessment subcommittee for weakfish, of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Products: My students and postdoc developed catch rate standardization models for Atlantic weakfish, and dynamics and stock assessment models for the hammerhead shark population. I developed a comprehensive operational stock assessment framework for California red abalone. Among my graduate students, Qing He developed a method of adaboost to standardize catch rate for commercial and recreational species, and bycatch for species under conservation. Hao Yu developed a simulation study to compare the sampling methods of stratified sampling and three adaptive samplings for fishery indepdendent surveys in Lake Erie. Yan Li developed a method to assess gear saturation of gillnet in Lake Erie. Dissemination: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the National Academies, California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through tele-conferences. PARTICIPANTS: Chris Hayes, my graduate student who works on the hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment project. Hao Yu, my graduate student who works on the yellow perch population dynamics and stock assessment project. Qing He, my graduate student who works on model comparison of age-aggregated model. Yan Li, my graduate student who works on bycatch of gillnet assessment. Andreas Winter, postdoc, who worked on spatial dynamics of walleye in Lake Erie and weakfish along mid-Atlantic. Kevin Reid, Fishery Biologist, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario. Canada, N0P 1A0. Rob O'Reilly, Virginia Marine Resources Commission. Eric Smith, Statistics Department, Virginia Tech. Don Orth, Fisheries Department, Virginia Tech. TARGET AUDIENCES: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through tele-conferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
My research outcomes/impacts from the last year are mainly in effect as changes in knowledge with some of new knowledge/approaches used or recommended to be used in fisheries stock assessment. I developed the hierarchical population growth model and a time-varying population growth model, using the example of hammerhead sharks. One manuscript on this work is published with the ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. Another has been submitted to Ecological Application. I also developed a Bayesian model averaging approach for stock recruitment models and population dynamics of species with poor data. 2 manuscripts on this work have been published. Hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment results have been transferred into a thesis (Chris Hayes), and publications. The stock assessment models and results have been communicated to the National Marine Fisheries Services. One paper led by Chris Hayes has been published in North American Fisheries Management; another one is currently in preparation and will be submitted to Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. The appraoch of using hierarchical models to assess fish complex has been recommended by the STAR committee to Northeast Fisheries Science Center for rockfish fish complex stock assessments. The stock assessment of red abalone has passed the peer review and is recommended to be used as the operational model in the future.

Publications

• Leaf R., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Exploring an individual-based simulation model to investigate changes in yield and egg production characteristic of a fished population under size-selective fishing. AFS Virginia Chapter annual meeting.
• Tobin, E., Leaf, R., Lapointe, R., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Population abundance of Northern snakehead (Channa argus) in a Potomac river tributary. AFS Virginia Chapter annual meeting
• Winter, A., Yu, H., O'Reilly, R., Orth, R., Berkson, J., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Weakfish CPUE estimates calculated with GLM and GAM standardizations. ASFMC, weakfish stock assessment subcommittee. 62pp
• Jiao, Y. 2009. Improving the stock assessment of California red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) at San Miguel Island. California Department of Fish and Game. 73pp.
• Ruan, N., Gao, D., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Canonical dual least square method for solving general nonlinear systems of equations. Computational Optimization with Application. (in press) doi.org/10.1007/s10589-008-9222-5
• Jiao, Y., Reid, K., and Nudds, T. 2009. Consideration of uncertainty in the design and use of harvest control rules. Scientia Marina. (accepted).
• Jiao, Y., Lapointe N., Angermeier, P.L., and Murphy, B. 2009. Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: an example using northern snakehead (Channa argus). Ecological Modelling. 220: 1681-1689
• Jiao, Y., Reid, K., Nudds, T., and Smith, E. 2009. Graphical evaluation of fishery status with a likelihood inference approach. North American Journal of Fisheries Management. 29:1106-1118
• Hayes, C., Jiao, Y., and Cortes, C. 2009. Stock assessment of scalloped hammerhead sharks in the western North Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. North American Journal of Fisheries Management. 29:1406-1417
• Jiao, Y. 2009. Regime shift in marine ecosystems and implications for fisheries management, a review. Review in Fish Biology and Fisheries. 19:177-191
• Jiao, Y. 2009. Bayesian time-varying population growth models in assessing fish complexes: a simulation study. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Tennessee, USA
• Yu, H., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Comparison of three sampling designs for yellow perch fishery-independent survey in Lake Erie. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Tennessee, USA
• He, Q., and Jiao, Y. 2009. The application of AdaBoost for analyzing catch and effort data. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Tennessee, USA
• Hua, D., Jiao, Y., Neves, R.J., and King, N. 2009. Propragation and grow-out of large-sized juveniles for release and assessment of restoration in their natal rivers. International Congress for Conservation Biology. Beijing China
• Yu, H., and Jiao, Y. 2009. Catch rate standardization of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in Lake Erie: a comparison between Generalized Linear Model and Generalized Additive Model. AFS Virginia Chapter annual meeting

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the last year, I have completed the following activities, events, services and products that reach people: Activities: I recruited one master student, Chris Hayes, to work on a hammerhead shark project (funded by NOAA), and recruited one doctoral student, Hao Yu, to work on a freshwater yellow perch project (funded by the Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association). Each student developed population dynamics models for their study species. Chris Hayes also assessed current population status and provided recommendations for population rebuilding strategies for each species in the hammerhead shark complex. Hao Yu developed and compared several kind of commonly used and newly innovated models for assessing fishery catch rates using the yellow perch gillnet survey data. Besides mentoring these two students, I also recruited one postdoc, Andreas Winter, to work on the spatial dynamics of walleye fisheries in Lake Erie and weakfish in the Atlantic. I taught one graduate course, Fish Population Dynamics and Modeling, and one senior undergraduate course, Marine Ecology. I mentored one undergraduate student, Eric Tobin, who is working on invasive species population dynamics using tag-recapture analysis. I also facilitated a special session at the 2008 AFS conference: Models and Model Selection Uncertainty. Events: My students and I have given 10 talks at national and international conferences. I was invited to present talks at an additional 5 population dynamics and stock assessment workshops. Services: I sit on the peer review panel for 1 marine species, summer flounder, organized by Northeast Fisheries Science Center and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, and 2 population dynamics methodology workshops organized by Northeast Fisheries Science Center and Northwest Fisheries Science Center. I served as a chair in one of the methodology workshops: Prior Elicitation of Catchability for Pacific Groundfishes. I also served as an invited member of the Scientific and Statistical Committee of the South Atlantic Fisheries Management Council. I also serve on the stock assessment subcommittee for weakfish, of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Products: My students and postdoc developed catch rate standardization models for Atlantic weakfish, and dynamics and stock assessment models for the hammerhead shark population. I developed a new hierarchical modeling approach to assess the population status of multi-species fish complexes. All computing codes for these models are available to the public through websites and direct contact. One graduate student, Chris Hayes, graduated in the spring of 2008, and was awarded the Knauss Marine Policy Fellowship awarded by NOAA. He is now working at Atlantic Coastal Cooperative Statistics Program. Dissemination: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through tele-conferences. PARTICIPANTS: Chris Hayes, my graduate student who works on the hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment project. Hao Yu, my graduate student who works on the yellow perch population dynamics and stock assessment project. Enric Cortes, Shark Biologist, National Marine Fisheries Services, 3500 Delwood Beach Road, Panama City, FL, 32408. Kevin Reid, Fishery Biologist, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario. Canada, N0P 1A0 TARGET AUDIENCES: I distribute educational materials and resources to research staff and fishermen representatives of the California Department of Fish and Game, the Abalone Advisory Group, Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, Virginia Marine Resources Commission, and Southeast Fisheries Science Center at Miami; by giving presentations, holding face-to-face discussions, and through tele-conferences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
My research outcomes/impacts from the last year are mainly in effect as changes in knowledge, since this is the first year of CSREES support. I developed the hierarchical population growth model and a time-varying population growth model, using the example of hammerhead sharks. One manuscript on this work is in press with the ICES Journal of Marine Sciences. I also developed a Bayesian model averaging approach for stock recruitment models and population dynamics of species with poor data. 2 manuscripts on this work have been published or are in press. Hammerhead shark population dynamics and stock assessment results have been transferred into a thesis (Chris Hayes), and publications. The stock assessment models and results have been communicated to the National Marine Fisheries Services.

Publications

• Jiao, Y. 2008. Regime shifts in marine ecosystems and implications for fisheries management, a review. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. (in press).
• Jiao, Y., Hayes, C. and Cortes, E. 2008. Bayesian hierarchical models for fish-complex stock assessment without species-specific data. ICES Journal of Marine Science. (in press).
• Jiao, Y., Neves, R. and Jones, J. 2008. Models and model selection uncertainty in estimating growth rates of endangered freshwater mussel populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. 65:2389-2398.
• Jiao, Y. 2008. Poor-data species stock assessment using hierarchical Bayesian approach. 5th World Fisheries Congress. Yokohama, Japan.
• Jiao, Y. 2008. Model selection uncertainty with measurement error models: a simulation study. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Ottawa, Canada.
• Jiao, Y. and Reid, K. 2008. Model selection uncertainty: a comparison among age-structured models in assessing walleye (Sander vitreus) fishery in Lake Erie. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Ottawa, Canada.
• Hayes, C., Jiao, Y., and Cortes E. 2008. Comparing a multi-species to species-specific assessments of hammerhead sharks (Sphyrna spp.) using production models. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Ottawa, Canada.
• Winter, A. and Jiao, Y. 2008. Spatial analyses of Lake Erie walleye distributions, 1989 - 2003. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society. Ottawa, Canada
• Yu, H., Jiao, Y., and Reid, K. 2008. Comparing two methods for estimating relative abundance index of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) by standardization and interpolation from fishery-independent survey data in Lake Erie. International Association for Great Lakes Research, Peterborough, Ontario.
• Jiao, Y., Neves, R. and Jones, J. 2007. Estimation of population growth rate of endangered freshwater mussels using Bayesian model averaging. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, San Francisco, California.
• Jiao, Y. 2007. Estimating uncertainty in the fisheries harvest control rules using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Annual Meeting of the American Fisheries Society, San Francisco, California.
• Jiao, Y. 2007. Bayesian model averaging in recruitment modeling. American Institute of Fisheries Research Biologists. Seattle, Washington.
• Jiao, Y., Reid, K. and Smith, E. 2008. Model selection uncertainty and Bayesian model averaging in fisheries recruitment modeling. Chapter 26 In R. Beamish and B. Rothschild (eds),The Future of Fisheries Science in North America. Fish and Fisheries book series. Springer, (in press)
• Jiao, Y., Cortes, E., and Andrews, K. 2008. Multi-model inference and hierarchical Bayesian models in data-poor and poor-data species assessment. National Stock Assessment Workshop, Port Townsend, Washington.
• Leaf, R., Jiao, Y., Prager, M., Berkson, J., and Hallerman, E. 2008. Exploring an individual-based simulation model to investigate the changes in life-history characteristics of a fished population under size-selective fishing. National Stock Assessment Workshop, Port Townsend, Washington.