Progress 04/01/17 to 03/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Team members have presented project-related work to risk communication practitioners (International Risk Communication Symposium), complex systems modelers (Conference of Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modeling symposium), scholars and practitioners in public administration (Northeast Public Administration Conference), as well as epidemiologists and other team members (June 2017 and January 2018 project team meetings). Students and "turkers" (via Amazon Mechanical Turk platform) have played experimental games. Advisors have received copies of all newsletters. Additionally, stakeholders have engaged in project activities in the following ways: Swine producers and feedlot operators have responded to surveys focusing on how animal health risk and economics factor into decision-making. Extension faculty and staff from several states have reviewed learning objects three and four. Youth have participated in sessions piloting the first and second learning objects. Changes/Problems:We have run into some delays with finalizing the project website and accessing the team file sharing site. After the UCF subaward was executed in late October, we moved forward with our first project newsletter of the year and successfully published it before the January team meeting. The project director visited with the Board of Directors of the National Institute for Animal Agriculture in person last April and by phone in September. Although the final theme for the 2018 annual meeting did not align with the project as closely as originally expected, there will be opportunities for several collaborators to present at this meeting. Because we do not have a lead role designing a symposium add-on day in conjunction with this conference, other opportunities will be pursued for reviewing and ranking potential influential leverage points for animal health protection across the food animal production chain. The utility of a disease list other than the National List of Reportable Animal Diseases (NLRAD; https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/monitoring-and-surveillance/sa_disease_reporting/ct_disease_list) seems limited. In 2016 the Center for Food Security and Public Health updated their lists of animal and human diseases from potential bioterrorist agents and USDA high consequence foreign animal diseases and pests (http://www.cfsph.iastate.edu/Products/resources/WallChart.pdf). These will be used to inform future efforts of our project and completes the second part of objective 1. Lack of timely subaward processing for Montana State interfered with progress in exploring communication needs with underserved producers in the west. Further exploration of the Hutterite data is on hold as a key collaborator relocated to another institution. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Through this project, training opportunities for three undergraduates, eight graduate students, one post-doctoral research associate, and two program staff have been provided this past year. In addition, faculty collaborators have gained better understanding of different disciplinary perspectives and explored cross-disciplinary initiatives. Undergraduates Luke Trinity, William Nupp and Evan Reilly at the University of Vermont have worked under Scott Merrill's supervision to learn and apply programming skills to developing experimental games for the project. They have also learned biosecurity concepts. Graduate students Adria McCardy, MA in Communication at the University of Central Florida, was involved in collecting data and writing a manuscript based on the exemplification experiment associated with the disease risk tolerance game. She graduated in May 2017. Emily Helsel, MA candidate in Communication at the University of Central Florida since January 2017, started working with the project as an undergraduate and assisted with data analysis from the PEDv case study interviews and subsequent manuscript preparation. Maxwell Kuchenreuther, MA candidate at the University of Central Florida, assisted in development of the grant's Website and logo. He also helps manage the software and hardware needed for data collection. Serge Wiltshire, PhD candidate in Food Systems and working on a Certificate in Complex Systems at the University of Vermont, was funded by the project fall 2015 through summer 2016 and has been working part-time for the project since then. He has been instrumental in bringing new members of the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation laboratory up to speed with the use of AnyLogic for programming agent-based models. He presented a poster at the Computational Social Science conference in 2017. Eric Clark, PhD candidate in Math and Statistics at the University of Vermont, came on board in August 2016. He has assisted with converting the protocol adoption experimental game into an online format and making it accessible. This work supports objectives 3 and 4. James Mitchell, PhD candidate in Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University, has been supported by the project since August 2016. He has assisted with building an equilibrium displacement model for estimating market-level effects of various biosecurity investments and scenarios, which will be instrumental for objective 2. Qianrong Wu, PhD candidate in Economics at Iowa State University, came on board in 2016 and defended her dissertation in May 2017. She is lead author of two published manuscripts based on work funded by this grant. Christopher Pudenz, PhD student in Economics at Iowa State University, came on board in August 2017 and is already lead author on an extension publication published in December 2017. Post-doctoral researchers Gabriela Bucini, (80% FTE) post-doctoral assistant at the University of Vermont, has been employed by the project since September 2016. She is using AnyLogic to program agent-based models and is excited to have deployed the model in an interactive manner online. Staff Eileen Kristiansen, (100% FTE) project budget manager at the University of Vermont, as a benefit of employment is completing her doctoral program in educational leadership. Susan Moegenburg, (75%) project manager with the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation laboratory at the University of Vermont, has been employed by the project since December 2015. She keeps up with the literature and the progress of collaborating faculty and students in the laboratory. Eileen and Susan have both attended project team meetings to strengthen relationships with others on the project and gain relevant knowledge. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Four manuscipts were published and four submitted in year 3 of the project. Seventeen conference papers or posters were presented in a variety of disciplines. As in previous years, we published two project newsletters and conducted two project team meetings, in which stakeholders or advisors participated. We also pilot tested the first learning objects, created new versions of the data collection games and agent-based models, published two extension publications and a staff paper, and conducted a variety of workshops and trainings detailed in a later section of this report. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Overall The project team plans to continue meeting twice a year to share progress, gather input, and determine next steps. The project director will attend the USDA project director's meeting. Team members will present at a variety of national and international meetings. A key international meeting is the first conference of the newly formed International Society for Economics and Social Sciences of Animal Health. The aims of this organization are nearly identical to the goals of this grant project. Objective 1. Characterize determinants of behavior of stakeholders at critical control points where application of practices or protocols can prevent (or reduce the impact of) incursions of pests and diseases of cattle and pigs. Efforts described under objective 3 below, factor into accomplishing the third part of objective 1: developing a typology by which stakeholders can be classified for tailoring of risk messages and other incentives to motivate animal health protective behaviors. Objective 2. Determine economic attractiveness of solutions that enhance biosecurity. Several analyses will be performed with data from the completed swine producer and feedlot operator surveys. We will determine the factors leading to adoption and the degree of complementarity among biosecurity practices in the swine industry. Additional work will estimate the economic "carrot" needed, in the form of higher market hog prices, to encourage producers to adopt costly biosecurity practices they otherwise may avoid. Furthermore, we will document how producers anticipating payments of indemnity to be conditional on biosecurity effort exert more desirable, proactive investment that may reduce industry-wide disease risk and impact. To better understand tradeoffs and relationships between risk management decisions of feedlot operators, we will examine the relationship between output price and animal health risk management. In addition, upcoming producer surveys are planned and will be executed as specific willingness of industry partners is confirmed and final project budgets are determined. The main goals are to (1) explore willingness to participate in information sharing around animal health and (2) examine relationships among biosecurity perceptions and efforts. Surveys will likely include contingent valuation and choice experiment questions similar to the completed swine industry survey allowing comparisons of how willingness to invest or adopt additional biosecurity varies across species. Data from these surveys will underlie producer-oriented partial budgets developed to help guide decision-making on key biosecurity practices. Other surveys of agricultural lenders and meat export stakeholders may be developed and conducted subsequently. These surveys would focus on impacts biosecurity practices have on upfront loans granted on new facilities or on recurring, operating loans as well as the impact biosecurity practices have on maintaining or expanding US meat exports. Objective 3. Determine, develop and apply most effective communication strategies (message tactic and wording, channels, and sources). In year 4 we intend to continue refining our research to optimize its utility for the swine industry, specifically, and for the animal industry, in general. One way we will expand this research is by completing a study of the poultry industry's efforts to manage Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), equally extensive to our previous study of the swine industry's response to PEDv. Because HPAI is the cause of a recent outbreak of a disease that triggered eradication under USDA authority, it will provide helpful insights into this type of disease response and allow comparison with the response to an emerging disease that did not trigger eradication. We will assess the utility of our work through our ongoing interaction with industry representatives and peer reviewers for relevant journals and conferences. Although we have experienced initial success in our message design and test project, we need to conduct further research. This coming year, we will create new messages based on continued research and test them using both the current game and a new game developed by the SEGS team. We hope that, after additional message design and testing efforts, we will have compelling evidence to share with industry spokespersons. The combination of theoretical development and multiple case studies generated through grant-funded efforts provides sufficient data for a book-length manuscript focusing on risk communication challenges and opportunities in the context of agricultural biosecurity. Lexington Books has responded favorably to our pre-proposal and has invited us to direct our full proposal to the editor of a book series on strategic communication. We have talked with the series editor, and she is enthusiastic about our proposal. We are in the final stages of generating our full proposal for the series editor's final review. If the proposal is accepted as we expect, we will begin writing the book in mid-2018. We will also attend to strengthening agricultural communication networks. We are particularly interested in engaging with Hutterite producers and those of other Anabaptist sects (e.g., Amish and Mennonite). Dr. Jason Parker, who has relocated to the Ohio State University, is recruiting a graduate student to take on this project. The aim of this work is to identify strategies and channels appropriate for communicating biosecurity messages to Anabaptist producers. Objective 4. Integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated "game" environment. Led by the project team members affiliated with the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation (SEGS) Laboratory at the University of Vermont, we will continue to integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception, and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated environment. Both an Agent-Based Model (ABM, a type of simulation model) and experimental games will be used to fulfill this objective. Objective 5. Develop educational and outreach materials and methods that lead to measurable changes in attitude and behaviors at critical control points in cattle, swine and small ruminant production systems. In the fourth year of the grant, we will complete peer-reviews and pilot testing of the third and fourth learning objects and incorporate changes as needed. The learning objects will continue to be demonstrated at various conferences to promote their use by 4-H leaders and other agricultural educators. In addition, the project team's communication experts are assisting in the development of a risk communication education module for future producers and risk communicators. The risk communication module will focus on the following areas: 1) best practices for risk communication planning, 2) best practices for risk message design, 3) media literacy--the ability to distinguish credible, data-supported information from less credible information, and 4) effective delivery skills for sharing information in public settings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Overall Goal: Food animal production, not counting poultry, represents roughly $140 billion per year of economic activity in the United States. Mitigating the consequences of diseases and pests with potentially severe social and economic ramifications is a vital aspect of sustaining a profitable and productive food animal sector. Protecting food animal health from new, emerging and foreign diseases and pests requires knowledge of, and routine performance of, behaviors that reduce the likelihood of entry of diseases and pests into an animal facility. Better understanding of the motivational drivers of behavior and better tools will allow us to nudge behavior in the right direction. Innovative research platforms, stakeholder surveys and interactive delivery of educational materials are helping facilitate the development and adoption of practices and policies that collectively reduce the impact of new, emerging and foreign pests and diseases, particularly to domestic production of cattle, swine and small ruminant foods and byproducts. The team's effort is organized around the objectives listed above. These objectives define the major thrust of effort planned out over the course of the project. Their execution is simultaneous not consecutive. Stakeholder input, cross-disciplinary linkages and synergies inform project direction and refinement of objectives over the five-year project. Objective 1. Characterize determinants of behavior of stakeholders at critical control points where application of practices or protocols can prevent (or reduce the impact of) incursions of pests and diseases of cattle and pigs. One of the project's most unique aspects is the use of experimental games to learn about human decision-making, which in turn informs our simulation models. A major advantage of this approach compared to surveys is that the user is actively engaged within the environment where opportunities for decision-making arise. With "cloud" and online technology, experimental games can reach a wide audience, simplifying data collection. Based on input from industry stakeholders, our experimental games address facility biosecurity on two levels: strategic/tactical and operational. To become secure against disease, a facility must first adopt best management protocols, such as truck washes and showering units for workers who enter barns. Adopting such measures is a strategic decision made by facility owners/managers. Workers, on the other hand, make operational decisions when they decide to comply or not comply with protocols. We aim to learn under what conditions people make strategic and operational decisions that enhance levels of biosecurity. Objective 2. Determine economic attractiveness of solutions that enhance biosecurity. A national swine producer survey documented swine industry characteristics, biosecurity adoption, and how risks to swine health factor into producer decision-making. A feedlot operator survey documented feedlot industry characteristics and how feedlot operators and their team of experts make decisions regarding price and animal health risk. These surveys have set the stage for analyses discussed in next year's work plan, which will lead to additional abstracts and manuscripts. Ultimately these analyses will help us better understand the managerial decision-making process and hence our comprehension of why certain decisions are made. With additional funds from the Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine, a relatively simple and transparent method to estimate the economic impact of veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) was developed and published. Existing equilibrium displacement models have been extended to include the dairy cattle industry and their indirect connections to the beef cattle, swine, and chicken industries. This model is available for use in providing market-level assessments of changes in prices and quantities under different biosecurity scenarios identified by the broader project effort. Objective 3. Determine, develop and apply most effective communication strategies (message tactic and wording, channels, and sources). Risk communication can be defined as communication in the face of uncertainty. Risk communication is appropriate in the context of animal diseases, which may or may not impact a particular food animal production business. In this project, risk communication efforts have been focused in three areas. First, an extensive review of the communication process involving the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak was completed. Second, a collaborative project to develop and test risk messages is underway in collaboration with the SEGS team. Third, communication experts are working together with the educational outreach team to identify and share best practices for risk communication. Objective 4. Integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated "game" environment. We currently have three versions of our agent-based model (ABM), developed in AnyLogic. They enable the user to learn about disease contagion after an outbreak in the hog production system. The models link risk attitude, contagion factors and the level of biosecurity adopted by the model agents (hog producers, feed mills, auction houses and slaughter plants) and simulate the spread of disease across a geographic region via the interaction networks in the hog supply chain. The calibration data were derived from sources such as the US Department of Agriculture and through active participation by stakeholders in the hog industry. The three ABM versions differ in their geographical extent, system processes and user interface. The first version simulates the network of agents at the state level for North Carolina, Iowa and Illinois. The other two ABMs are designed for Duplin County, North Carolina and have an interactive user interface. One model is designed to identify and learn about vulnerable nodes in the system by allowing the user to strategically start an infection at chosen agent locations. The other ABM is designed for decision-making. The user strategically invests an initial budget into biosecurity with the goal to minimize disease damage assessed by the number of infected farms and the equivalent market dollars of lost pigs. These tools offer a dynamic graphical interface and easy-to-interpret outputs (e.g., infected farms and market losses). The data collected help livestock producers, veterinarians or policy makers to explore the disease dynamics and examine management strategies. Objective 5. Develop educational and outreach materials and methods that lead to measurable changes in attitude and behaviors at critical control points in cattle, swine and small ruminant production systems. A suite of learning objects is nearing completion. The topics of these learning objects are: (1) What is Biosecurity? (2) Routes of Infection and Means of Transmission, (3) Finding Points of Disease Transmission Risk, and (4) Biosecurity Strategies. Each learning object is a self-contained set of interactive learning activities, which will be made accessible online. The learning objects include cattle, swine and small ruminant examples. Each learning object can be used independently, but subsequent ones review key points from previous modules and provide additional knowledge required for understanding and completing the fourth and final module of the series. In the final module, students learn about biosecurity strategies, create a biosecurity plan for a sample farm, and identify their top four most cost-effective recommendations. Based on peer-review feedback, the target audience for the biosecurity learning objects is 6th through 12th graders. These educational tools have been introduced to numerous 4-H student groups and demonstrated to agricultural educators at professional conferences and received overwhelmingly positive feedback.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Koliba, C., S. Merrill, A. Zia, S. Wiltshire, and G. Bucini. "Utilization of computer simulation and serious games to inform livestock biosecurity policy and governance." Public Management Research Conference, Washington, DC. June 8-10, 2017.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wu, Q., L.L. Schulz, G.T. Tonsor, and J.M. Smith. "Expert views on effectiveness, feasibility, and implementation of biosecurity measures for mitigating Tier 1 disease risks in the U.S. swine, beef cattle, and dairy industries." Journal of Veterinary Science and Technology 8(2):435.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zia A., S. Merrill, C. Koliba, S. Moegenburg, S. Wiltshire, E. Clark, G. Bucini, and J. Smith. "Are human agents myopic or far-sighted under differential conditions of risk and ambiguity? A Bayesian network model of biosecurity state transitions in a sequential decision experiment." Conference on Complex Systems, Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico. September 17-22, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: McKendree, M.G.S., G.T. Tonsor, L.L. Schulz. "Feedlot operators' decision making regarding price and animal health risk." 2017 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. Chicago, IL. July 30 - August 1, 2017.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kerr, S. 2017. "Practical biosecurity recommendations for farm tour hosts." Washington State University Extension Publication FS257E, http://extension.wsu.edu/publications/pubs/fs257e/
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T. L., and D. D. Sellnow. "Crisis communication in response to rapidly emerging diseases." Central States Communication Association. Minneapolis, MN. March 17, 2017.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T., D. Sellnow, J. Parker, and J. Martin. "Risk and crisis communication narratives in response to rapidly emerging diseases." Risk Research.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T., D. Sellnow, E. Helsel, and J. Parker. "Risk and crisis messages from an industry on the front line: Lessons learned from the PEDv." National Communication Association. Dallas, TX. November 17, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T. "Composing and communicating effective risk messages: Advice from the most current research." International Risk Communication Symposium. Seoul, South Korea. October 26, 2017
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Merrill, S., C. Koliba, A. Zia, J. Parker, S. Moegenburg, T. Sellnow, S. Wiltshire, G. Bucini, K. Danehy, and J. Smith. "Adoption of livestock biosecurity practices amidst environmental and social uncertainty: Evidence from a randomized experimental game." Games and Economic Behavior.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wiltshire, S., K. Logan, S. Merrill, and J. Fooks. "Size matters: How social learning can facilitate the diffusion of pro-environmental agricultural innovations." Agricultural Systems.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wiltshire, S., G. Bucini, E. Clark, C. Koliba, A. Zia, S. Merrill, J. Smith, and S. Moegenburg. "Using an agent based model and network analytics to identify risk factors for epidemiological spread in regional livestock production chains." Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Koliba, C., A. Zia, and S. Merrill. "Utilization of computer simulation and serious games to inform livestock biosecurity policy and governance." Conference on Complex Systems, Cancun, Quintana Roo, Mexico. September 18, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bucini, G., S. Wiltshire, E. Clark, S. Merrill, A. Zia, C. Koliba, S. Moegenburg, L. Trinity, and J. Smith. "Protecting herd health: Interactive agent-based modeling used to reduce the impact of disease." Larner College of Medicine 2017 Celebration of Excellence in Research. Burlington, Vermont. November 7, 2017.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wu, Q., L.L. Schulz, and G.T. Tonsor. 2018. "Using expert knowledge to understand biosecurity adoption aimed at reducing Tier 1 disease risks in the U.S. livestock industry." Journal of Agricultural Science 10:12-26.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Schulz, L.L., D.J. Hayes, D.J. Holtkamp, and D.A. Swenson. 2018. "Economic impact of university veterinary diagnostic laboratories: A case study." Preventive Veterinary Medicine 151:5-12.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: McKendree, M.G.S., G.T. Tonsor, and L.L. Schulz. "Feedlot Risk Management and Benchmarking Survey Summary." Michigan State University Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics. Staff Paper 2017-07. October 2017.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Pudenz, C.C., L.L. Schulz, and G.T. Tonsor. 2017. "Biosecurity and health management by U.S. pork producers: 2017 survey summary." Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, Iowa State University of Science and Technology. https://store.extension.iastate.edu/product/15321
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bucini, G., S. Wiltshire, S. Merrill, A. Zia, C. Koliba, E. Clark, L. Trinity, S. Moegenburg, and J. Smith. "Regional U.S. hog production chain biosecurity model." Agent-based Modeling - ABM17- A Symposium that advances the science of ABMs. San Diego, California. April 19-22, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bucini, G., S. Wiltshire, S. Merrill, A. Zia, C. Koliba, E. Clark, L. Trinity, S. Moegenburg, and J. Smith. "Where will the infection spread? Effects of movement networks and human risk attitude on spread of swine disease." Agent-based Modeling - ABM17- A Symposium that advances the science of ABMs. San Diego, California. April 19-22, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Koliba, C., A. Zia, S. Merrill, G. Bucini, E. Clark, S. Moegenburg, and J. Smith. "Addressing wicked problems: What tools are in the toolbox? Serious gaming and system simulation." Northeast Conference on Public Administration. Burlington, Vermont. November 3, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zia, A., C. Koliba, S. Merrill, E. Clark, G. Bucini, J. Smith, and S. Moegenburg. "Using agent-based models to address wicked problems." Northeast Conference on Public Administration. Burlington, Vermont. November 3, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Bucini, G., S. Merrill, C. Koliba, A. Zia, S. Wiltshire, E. Clark, L. Trinity, S. Moegenburg, and J. Smith. "Hog production chain biosecurity model." Northeast Conference on Public Administration. Burlington, Vermont. November 3, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Merrill, S., C. Koliba, A. Zia, G. Bucini, S. Wiltshire, E. Clark, S. Moegenburg, L. Trinity, and J. Smith. "Serious games: Data gathering, complex systems analysis, and nudging." Northeast Conference on Public Administration. Burlington, Vermont. November 3, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Smith, J.M., T. Bass, G. Bucini, S. Dritz, S. Kerr, C. Koliba, R. Littlefield, J. McDonald, S. Merrill, J. Parker, J. Rankin, L. Schulz, D. Sellnow, T. Sellnow, R. Sero, G. Tonsor, and A. Zia. (poster) "A human behavioral approach to reducing the impact of livestock pest or disease incursions of socio-economic importance." USDA AFRI Animal Health and Well-Being Program Areas Annual Project Director Meeting, Chicago, IL, December 1, 2017.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T. L., J. S. Parker, D. D. Sellnow, R. S. Littlefield, E. M. Helsel, M. C. Getchell, J. M. Smith, and S. C. Merrill. 2017. "Improving biosecurity through instructional crisis communication: lessons learned from the PEDv outbreak." Journal of Applied Communications 101(4). doi.org/10.4148/1051-0834.1298
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wiltshire, S., G. Bucini, E. Clark, C. Koliba, A. Zia, S. Merrill, J. Smith, and S. Moegenburg. (poster) "Coupling agent-based modeling with network analytics and evolutionary computation: Can network features predict epidemiological risk in livestock production systems?" Conference of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, Santa Fe, NM, October 21, 2017.

Progress 04/01/16 to 03/31/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Team members have presented project-related work to livestock producers, industry leaders, and animal health officials (National Institute for Animal Agriculture), economists and extension personnel (Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Extension Risk Management Education National Conference), risk communication practitioners (including the National Communication Association and Association for Communication Excellence), students in crisis communication seminar at University of Central Florida, climate change research interns (Vermont EPSCoR), complex systems modelers (Swarmfest hosted at UVM), and other team members at May and November project team meetings. A focus group of swine industry experts participated in a one-day workshop led by the project's modeling team. Experts in the swine, beef and dairy industries have pre-tested and completed surveys on aspects of biosecurity implementation. Advisors have received copies of all newsletters. By the end of project year 2, Pork producers in Montana, including a significant number of Hutterite producers, will have been invited to participate in a survey that is also being distributed to a cross-section of the hog industry. Over one hundred (mostly student) participants will have completed the initial "protocol adoption" game and another hundred will have completed a new version to generate data. Extension faculty and staff from several states will have reviewed the first learning objects. These Extension professionals are members of the National Association of Extension 4-H Agents' Animal Science Task Force and work in 14 different states. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Undergraduates Caitlyn Danehy, Luke Trinity, and William Nupp at the University of Vermont have worked under Scott Merrill's supervision to learn and apply programming skills to developing experimental games for the project. They have also learned biosecurity concepts. Artemis Sapountzi, a post-baccalaureate pre-veterinary student at the University of Vermont, created an EndNote library of biosecurity resources collected by Dr. Julie Smith. She also did initial coding of interviews from a previous research project that are relevant to the current project. Graduate students James Mitchell, PhD candidate in Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University, has been supported by the project since August 2016. He has assisted with building an equilibrium displacement model for estimating market-level effects of various biosecurity investments and scenarios, which will be instrumental for objective 2. Qianrong Wu, PhD candidate in Economics at Iowa State University, came on board in 2016. She developed and conducted the expert surveys described in objective 2 and is on track to complete a manuscript on that work in year 2. She has a second manuscript in preparation. Qianrong will be assisting in documenting the state of the industry in regards to animal health and biosecurity as the swine producer data becomes available. Qianrong is expected to defend her dissertation by May 2017. Emily Helsel, MA candidate in Communication at the University of Central Florida, assisted with data analysis from the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus case study interviews and subsequent manuscript preparation. Adria McCardy, MA candidate in Communication at the University of Central Florida, is involved in collecting data and writing a manuscript based on the exemplification experiment associated with the disease risk tolerance game. Serge Wiltshire, PhD candidate in Food Systems and working on a Certificate in Complex Systems at the University of Vermont, was funded by the project fall 2015 through summer 2016 and has been working part-time for the project since then. He has been instrumental in bringing new members of the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation laboratory up to speed with the use of AnyLogic for programming agent based models. He presented an abstract at Swarmfest 2016 (a national conference for complex systems researchers, which focused on agent-based modeling this year). He has also accepted an invitation to give a seminar and several demonstration workshops on the use of AnyLogic at Montana State University in early 2017. Eric Clark, PhD candidate in Math and Statistics at the University of Vermont, came on board in August 2016. He has assisted with converting the protocol adoption experimental game into an online format and making it accessible. This work supports objectives 3 and 4. He attended his first project team meeting in November 2016. Post-doctoral researchers Gabriela Bucini, post-doctoral assistant at the University of Vermont, has been employed by the project since September 2016. She is using AnyLogic to program agent based models. In early December she presented the model to stakeholders at a project workshop. Staff Eileen Kristiansen, project budget manager at the University of Vermont, is completing her doctoral program in educational leadership as a benefit of employment. Susan Moegenburg, project manager with the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation Laboratory at the University of Vermont, has been with the project since December 2015. She attended Swarmfest (hosted by the University of Vermont) to hear presentations related to the USDA project by several project collabotors. Eileen and Susan have both attended project team meetings to strengthen relationships with others on the project and gain relevant knowledge. Faculty Tim Sellnow, professor at the University of Central Florida, met with project researchers at the University of Vermont to further cross-disciplinary research plans. Julia M. Smith, project director and research associate professor at the University of Vermont, attended the US Animal Health Association Annual Meeting in Greensboro, NC, and the NIFA Animal Health PD meeting in Chicago in December. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?This year we published two project newsletters, included stakeholders/advisors in two project team meetings (one of which was a facilitated focus group workshop), developed a peer-review tool for evaluation of learning objects, completed one learning object, submitted one manuscript (with more in progress), gave three invited talks (one recorded), presented at one local and nine national or international conferences in a range of disciplines, and have one submitted and two accepted proposals for presentation before the end of project year 2. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Overall The project team plans to continue meeting twice a year to share progress, gather input, and determine next steps. Project communications through a website and newsletter will continue. A project logo will identify all outreach going forward. The project director will attend the USDA project director's meeting. Objective 1. Characterize determinants of behavior of stakeholders at critical control points where application of practices or protocols can prevent (or reduce the impact of) incursions of pests and diseases of cattle and pigs. The list of locations, stakeholders, and behaviors, which influence animal health protection, forms the basis for considering enlarging circles of influence of policy or practice. This list will inform project activities, including an industry forum being planned for 2018 with the National Institute for Animal Agriculture. A consultant with experience in regulatory veterinary medicine will assist with the development of this forum and will solicit additional feedback from experts. A more robust list of diseases and disease characteristics from which to select scenarios will be created with assistance of veterinary consultants working with the project team. Efforts described under objective 3, support the third part of objective 1: developing a typology by which stakeholders can be classified for tailoring of risk messages and other incentives to motivate animal health protective behaviors. Objective 2. Determine economic attractiveness of solutions that enhance biosecurity. Year 3 efforts will focus on data analysis and results generation based on completed national swine producer and feedlot surveys. These data will be used to update and expand hedonic regression models to provide improved marginal benefit estimates that producers would use to assess the net value of adding or changing various value-added practices including several animal health focused efforts. We are also investigating the marginal value (higher cattle price) associated with adoption of additional animal health protocols. These results will serve as inputs into broader economic assessments. Additional surveys of cow-calf producers and possibly beef industry experts are planned to explore willingness to participate in broader information sharing efforts, including sharing of animal health information. Objective 3. Determine, develop and apply most effective communication strategies (message tactic and wording, channels, and sources). In year 3 we will conduct message testing in a game simulation, publish and present research from the case study of porcine epidemic diarrhea, and further develop theories of ideal messaging and contextual tensions. For the message testing experiment, the "protocol adoption game" described under objective 4 will be hosted in Florida. The explanatory video provided as an introduction to the game will include either a control or treatment news story including visual exemplars that are emotionally arousing. We intend to have between 100 and 200 students play the game. Game play and data collection in eastern Kentucky and the Kansas City, MO, area will help us account for regional variation. A book proposal focusing on risk communication challenges and opportunities in the context of agricultural biosecurity will be submitted to Lexington Books for review. The survey data of Hutterite swine producers (completed under objective 2) will lead to additional work on cultural considerations in messaging about animal disease protection. As described under objective 5, the research conducted in this and other case studies also provides support for educational modules associated with risk communication best practices. If there is time, we will begin a case study of risk communication associated with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. In regards to strengthening agricultural communication networks, we will investigate channels and opportunities to reach underserved producers, including niche and hobby producers in the west. Another aspect focuses on engaging with Hutterite (an Anabaptist sect akin to Amish and Mennonite) pork producers to identify strategies and channels appropriate for communicating biosecurity messages to this closed community. Objective 4. Integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated "game" environment. We will continue to integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception, and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated environment. Both an Agent Based Model (ABM, a type of simulation model) and experimental games will be used to fulfill this objective. The main goals related to continued development of the ABM for the coming year are to (1) refine the parameterization of the model with an industry dataset of hog movement records, (2) implement some of the features such as carcass management (disposal) suggested by stakeholders at the Mankato workshop, (3) integrate economic factors using data generated by the national swine producer and feedlot surveys (conducted under Objective 2) , and (4) make the ABM agents adaptive. Currently agents in the model have fixed decision rules. Adaptive rules would more realistically reflect how people change their attitude and behavior toward biosecurity and risk-taking under different circumstances. This work is expected to lead to three manuscripts. Experimental game development will involve new versions of the "protocol adoption" games (which investigate decision-making regarding adoption of biosecurity protocols) and "compliance" games (which seek to understand what drives compliance with existing biosecurity protocols). Multiple versions of the online "protocol adoption" game (created in Unity programming language) will allow us to test links between behavioral and decision-making theories and applicability. We also plan to roll out additional versions of the online "compliance" game, for multiple types of players and with the incorporation of message testing. This year we are targeting a minimum of 100 participants for each experimental game. Special efforts will be made to include stakeholders from the swine industry as participants. This work is expected to lead to four manuscripts. Recruitment of players for the games is promoted on the Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation laboratory website. As results from games and ABM are published, this grant project will be increasingly featured there. Objective 5. Develop educational and outreach materials and methods that lead to measurable changes in attitude and behaviors at critical control points in cattle, swine and small ruminant production systems. In year 3 we will finish production of the remaining learning objects and collect evaluation data from peer reviews and pilot tests. The learning objects will be demonstrated at various conferences to promote their use by 4-H leaders and other agricultural educators. We will begin to develop an educational risk assessment tool that feeds into a biosecurity management plan customized for the producer completing the assessment. In addition, the project team's communication experts are assisting in the development of a risk communication education module, which will be tailored for young people who are exploring careers in agriculture. This module will include existing best practices as well as contributions from this project's case study and message testing work. The module will focus on three areas: 1) best practices for risk communication planning, 2) best practices for risk message design, 3) media literacy--the ability to distinguish credible, data-supported information from less credible information, and 4) effective delivery skills for sharing information in public settings.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Overall The execution of project objectives is simultaneous, not consecutive. While a few team members may have a primary role meeting a particular objective, there are many objectives being met with cross-disciplinary efforts. The project team met twice in year 2 to share progress, gather input from stakeholders, and chart a course forward. Strategic facilitation of team meetings ensures that we define our "jargon" and enhance cross-disciplinary understanding. Our second year activities have built on our initial framework using the outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus as a case study and have extended to other livestock sectors in our surveys and educational deliverables. Cross-disciplinary linkages are strengthening, leading, in some cases, to modification of activities from what was originally proposed. Objective 1. Characterize determinants of behavior of stakeholders at critical control points where application of practices or protocols can prevent (or reduce the impact of) incursions of pests and diseases of cattle and pigs. As a starting point, a comprehensive list of types of locations, stakeholders, and behaviors, which influence animal health protection, has been generated by the team. We intend to prioritize the items on this list at future workshops. Through input at project team meetings, a workshop, and a special meeting in Riverdale, MD, advisors representing industry associations and education/outreach organizations as well as USDA personnel have provided input on disease scenarios to be used in surveys and games that generate data. We have used this feedback to determine the diseases and disease characteristics of importance to guide our research efforts. We have used several approaches to identify determinants of behavior. An expert survey conducted of swine, beef and dairy cattle experts yielded important information on stakeholder behavior at the level of the production unit. The simulation games (for data collection purposes) described under objective 4 and agent-based models described here are also shedding light on determinants of behavior and network locations that influence the likelihood of disease spread. We have developed agent-based models to simulate the transmission of diseases within the U.S. hog production system. "Agents" as defined in this model include hog production premises, feed mills, auction houses and slaughter plants. Interactions among agents occur through networks representing the delivery of feed and movement of animals. This platform can be used to identify agents in the system where efforts to control disease spread should be prioritized. The agent-based model and simulation games were presented to stakeholders at a workshop in Mankato, MN. The team members affiliated with the social ecological gaming and simulation laboratory at the University of Vermont led the workshop, which consisted of giving presentations, allowing stakeholders to play the protocol adoption game (described under objective 4), and eliciting feedback on various aspects of the simulation models. Objective 2. Determine economic attractiveness of solutions that enhance biosecurity. A manuscript on the initial (year 1) survey of industry experts familiar with swine, beef cattle, and dairy industries has been submitted for publication. National swine producer and feedlot surveys have been completed. The national swine producer survey is designed to document current implementation of biosecurity and identify factors influencing the adoption of specific biosecurity practices. This survey is also being separately deployed in an area with a significant Hutterite population. The feedlot survey explores whether decision makers approach animal health and cattle price risks independently or if there are complement/substitute relationships in these decisions. Ultimately this will help better understand the managerial decision making process and hence our comprehension of why certain decisions are made. Objective 3. Determine, develop and apply most effective communication strategies (message tactic and wording, channels, and sources). Qualitative research methods have been used to study the response of the U.S. swine industry to porcine epidemic diarrhea. A case study has been completed on message design and distribution during the initial incursion of the disease. The results have already translated into a number of presentations and a manuscript submission. Follow up analysis will generate additional manuscripts. Using an unexpected novel approach leveraging cross-disciplinary connections, the communication specialists have teamed up with the simulation game developers to test how messages affect decision-making during game play. Objective 4. Integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated "game" environment. The first experimental (i.e., data gathering) game (aka protocol adoption game) was developed to examine the effect of information about disease prevalence and biosecurity practices on adoption of biosecurity protocols. With the first version of the game, played by 110 participants, we collected in-game decision-making data and post-game survey data (e.g., demographic and behavior motivation questions). A manuscript has been drafted. The second version of the game examines the hypothesis that showing realistic depictions of the fate of infected pigs versus showing healthy pigs will change the players' decision-making around implementing biosecurity protection. A third version of the game, an online version (created using the Unity platform), is in the early stages of development. Another experimental game, known as the biosecurity compliance game, has been developed on the Unity platform and beta tested. By deploying this game online, we will be able to target and engage stakeholders as players. Objective 5. Develop educational and outreach materials and methods that lead to measurable changes in attitude and behaviors at critical control points in cattle, swine and small ruminant production systems. The stakeholder workshop held in Mankato, MN, in early December 2016 was the first of several planned workshop focus groups designed to determine uses of the simulations and games for education and outreach purposes, including policy-making. The first three learning objects have been produced: (1) What is Biosecurity? (2) Routes of Infection and Means of Transmission, and (3) Sources of Disease Risk. The first is ready to publish to a website or repository and the next two have been peer-reviewed and pilot-tested. Each learning object is a self-contained set of interactive learning activities accessible online and geared for youth in grades 4 through 12. Cattle, swine and small ruminant examples are included. An evaluation specialist is overseeing the review and piloting of these learning objects. Reviews were solicited from extension colleagues in 14 states. Expected impact: The activities and outputs of this project will facilitate the development and adoption of practices and policies that collectively reduce the impact of new, emerging and foreign pests and diseases to domestic production of cattle, swine and small ruminant foods and byproducts. The project team uses several approaches to better understand the human behavioral dimensions of taking steps to protect animal health in the livestock sector. Novel educational tools are being developed for youth audiences to learn about protecting animal health. Food animal production, not counting poultry, represents roughly $140 billion per year of economic activity in the United States. Mitigating the consequences of diseases and pests with potentially severe social and economic ramifications is a vital aspect of sustaining a profitable and productive food animal sector.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sellnow, T. L. "Crisis communication overview." Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition 2016 Annual Symposium, Greenbelt, MD. April, 4 2016.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Getchell, M. C. "Nimble and Networked: The 2013 PEDv Crisis as a Case Study." International Risk and Crisis Communication Conference, Orlando, FL. March 14, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sellnow, T. L. and D. D. Sellnow. "Crisis Communication in Response to Rapidly Emerging Diseases in the Agriculture Industry: Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus as a Case Study." Central States Communication Associations Annual Conference, Minneapolis, MN. March 18, 2017.
• Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Smith, J. "Vermont Veterinarian Panel (Panelist)." Vermont Farm Health Task Force, Winter Quarterly Meeting, Berlin, VT. January 12, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tonsor, G. "Why Do Producers Partially Implement Biosecurity Recommendations of Experts?" Economics of Animal Health Session. Agribusiness Economics and Management Session, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Boston, MA. August 2, 2016.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tonsor, G. "Animal Welfare Perceptions of U.S. Cow-Calf Producers and Consumers: Economic and Educational Implications." Extension Risk Management Education National Conference, Ft. Worth, TX. April 28, 2016.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tonsor, G. "Understanding Incentives for Livestock Biosecurity Investments & Efforts." National Institute for Animal Agriculture, 2016 Annual Meeting  Closing General Session, Kansas City, MO. April 6, 2016.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Tonsor, G. "Assessment of the Economic Impacts of PEDv." National Institute for Animal Agriculture, 2016 Annual Meeting  Swine Committee Meeting, Kansas City, MO. April 5, 2016.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wu, Q., L. L. Schulz, G. T. Tonsor, and J. M. Smith. (submitted). Expert views on effectiveness, feasibility, and current implementation of biosecurity measures for mitigating Tier 1 disease risks in the U.S. swine, beef cattle, and dairy industries. Veterinary Medicine and Science.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Kerr, S., et al. "Living & Growing Biosecurity with a National Youth Livestock Biosecurity Curriculum." International 4-H -Western Region Leaders' Forum, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. March 17, 2017.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zia, A., S. Merrill, C. Koliba, S. Moegenburg, S. Wiltshire, E. Clark, G. Bucini, J. Parker, and J. Smith. Machine Learning the Effects of Biosecurity State Transitions in a Sequential Decision Game. Annual BayesiaLab Conference and Advanced BayesiaLab Course, Nashville, TN. September 2016.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Bucini, G., S. Wiltshire, S. Merrill, J.M. Smith, C. Koliba, A. Zia, S. Moegenburg, and E. Clark. Regional U.S. Hog Production Chain Biosecurity Model. Animal Disease Biosecurity Coordinated Agricultural Project (ADB CAP) Annual Meeting, Mankato, MN. November 29 - December 1, 2016.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Koliba, C., J. Smith, S. C. Merrill, G. Bucini, and S. S. Moegenburg. Mediated-Modeling Workshop. Building towards an Understanding of the Impacts of Human Behavior on Disease in the Swine Industry. Mankato, MN. December 1, 2016. Part of the USDA supported Animal Disease Biosecurity  CAP grant annual meeting.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Merrill, S.C., A. Zia, C. Koliba, S. Wiltshire, J. Smith, and S. Moegenburg. Innovation in ABM calibration: Using experimental gaming data to inform agent rule sets. Swarmfest conference. Agent-based Modeling. Burlington, VT. August 1, 2016.
• Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Merrill, S. C. Experimental Gaming Research, gathering data to understand Social-Ecological Systems. Plant and Soil Science Departmental Seminar. Burlington, VT. March 2016. https://streaming.uvm.edu/media/videos/1289/experimental-gaming-research-talk-by-scott-merrill-phd/
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Wiltshire, S. "The Regional U.S. Hog Production Chain Biosecurity Model: Using an Agent Based Model to Evaluate the Effect of Producer Specialization on Disease Resilience in a Simulated Livestock Production Chain." Swarmfest, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT. August 2, 2016.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Wiltshire, S. "Evaluating the Effect of Producer Specialization on Disease Resilience in a Simulated Livestock Production Chain." Poster Presentation, University of Vermont Student Research Conference, Burlington, VT. April 28, 2016.
• Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Wiltshire, S. "Using AnyLogic Multimethod Simulation Software to Model Disease Spread in a Complex Livestock Supply Chain." Invited Talk, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT. January 12, 2017.

Progress 04/01/15 to 03/31/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Animal agriculture stakeholders, particularly experts in the swine industry, have been made aware of the project through presentations at the US Animal Health Association annual meeting, participation in the fall project team meeting, and invitation to participate in project surveys and interviews. A project newsletter has been distributed to individuals in the food and agriculture sectors. Agency stakeholders with USDA, DHS, and FDA have been made aware through meetings. Contact has been maintained with the vulnerable population in the upper plains (USA) to be included in future surveys and interviews. Members of the University of Vermont community and general public attended seminars explaining the value of data gathered using experimental games with examples specifically geared towards understanding the human behavioral approaches to reducing the impact of livestock pest or disease incursions of socio-economic importance. University students have participated in experimental games. Changes/Problems:Only one of the five original subawards was processed with the initial grant award. Three more were processed within about six months of initiating the project. The subaward initially proposed with University of Kentucky was established with University of Central Florida because the lead co-PI moved from Kentucky to Florida, where he will be joined by the North Dakota State University co-investigator later this year. As other pieces of the award were being processed in July, the University of Kentucky Research Foundation subaward was withheld so it could be awarded directly to the University of Central Florida. A separate subaward was established with North Dakota State University to cover the effort during the project period. The subawards with University of Central Florida and North Dakota State University were executed in February of 2016. Much of the proposed effort continued in spite of these delays, but hiring of a graduate student for one objective was delayed. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Two graduate students and one senior undergraduate student have been included in planning and initiating the survey regarding critical control points for disease control. A doctoral graduate research assistant is currently enrolled in Agricultural Economics II (advanced treatment of topics and models in agricultural economics with emphasis on equilibrium analysis), Experimental Economics (introduction to experimental economics and major subject areas addressed by laboratory and field experiments), Machine Learning (subfield of artificial intelligence that is concerned with the design, analysis, implementation, and applications of programs that learn from experience), and Third-Year Paper (a formal research paper wrtten as an introduction to the dissertation research process, which will utilize materials and methods developed in this grant research). An undergraduate has accessed online training for using project-related software--AnyLogic (for the development of agent-based models) and the gaming platform Unity. A doctoral graduate research assistant in the Food Systems program has enhanced his skills with computer modeling, complex network analysis, and web development. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The first issue of the project newsletter was distributed early in 2016 and can be accessed at http://blog.uvm.edu/jmsmith/smith-leads-usda-nifa-cap-protecting-animal-health/ The following presentations have been made by project collaborators or with reference to project products: Smith, J. The complexity of saving your bacon: the policy and human behavioral challenges of protecting food animal health. Research Summaries Session, US Animal Health Association. October 26, 2015, Providence, RI. Schulz, L.L. "Hog-Pork Market Update and the Economic Impact of PEDV." Presentation to North Japan Feed Association. Ames, IA. November 4, 2015. Harry Snelson, Director of Communications - American Association of Swine Veterinarians, requested, cited and acknowledged results from Schulz and Tonsor (JAS) paper on economic impacts of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus in the United States in a conference presentation in Parma, Italy. Initial results from the case studies completed have been presented to the FDA, Joint Institute for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (JIFSAN), and the attendees of the International Risk and Crisis Communication Conference (IRCCC). Details of the three presentations follow. The presentations to FDA and JIFSAN refer in detail to the ADB-CAP project to describe the application of risk and crisis communication to food and agriculture. The presentation to IRCCC focused entirely on the ADB-CAP case study. Sellnow, T. L. Comprehending the role of message convergence for consistently effective message design in pre-crisis situations. Food and Drug Administration Meeting for the Risk Communication Advisory Committee, February 17, 2016, Silver Spring, MD. Getchel, M. C., & Sellnow, T. L. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV). IRCCC, March 5, 2016. Sellnow, T. L. Crisis communication overview. JIFSAN 2016 Annual Symposium, April 4, 2016, Greenbelt, MD. Seminars explaining the value of data gathered using experimental games with examples specifically geared towards understanding the human behavioral approaches to reducing the impact of livestock pest or disease incursions of socio-economic importance were presented to members of the University of Vermont community and general public and members of the Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research program, Research on Adaptation to Climate Change. Details of the two presentations follow. Merrill, S. C. (2016) Experimental gaming research: the next step in data gathering and complex systems analysis. Research on Adaptation to Climate Change Retreat. Burlington, VT. Merrill, S. C. (2016) Experimental Gaming Research, gathering data to understand Social-Ecological Systems. Plant and Soil Science Departmental Seminar. Burlington, VT. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The PD will attend the annual meeting of the National Institute of Animal Agriculture, which revolves around the theme of biosecurity in 2016, to maintain relationships with stakeholders interested in this aspect of the success of the food animal industries. The PD will also attend the USDA NIFA PI meeting in December in conjunction with the Conference for Research Workers in Animal Disease. Additional opportunities to present or meet to discuss potential collaborations will be acted on as appropriate. Monthly team conference calls and face-to-face project team meetings twice a year will continue. A website to support project outreach is being developed. The project will be "branded" with the assistance of communication students at University of Central Florida. The plan of the risk communication team (University of Vermont, University of Central Florida, and North Dakota State University collaborators) for the next reporting period is to conduct research on the perceptions, beliefs, attitudes, and motivations of different groups of stakeholders (e.g., hog producers, processors, and haulers) to assess and plan, mitigate risks, and prepare to respond to Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv). The first of two phases of this research will be completed focusing on PEDv risk management by exploring the area between what is possible and what is acceptable in terms of animal health protection from the perspective of industry experts. After completing the interviews of experts, data will be analyzed to characterize various influences on stakeholder behaviors at critical control points and where practices or protocols can prevent the introduction or spread of PEDv. This will accomplish two goals: 1) Facilitate understanding of expert perceptions for state-of-the-art in PEDv prevention and control practices that will be used in the producer interviews in the second research phase of the next reporting period. This expert information will guide our development of the next interview protocol aimed at understanding hog producer perceptions of PEDv and information preferences and needs. A typology for tailoring messages will be developed using the interview and focus group data, along with informational needs and survey results. 2) Increase understanding of the specific influences and interactions among people and locations in the hog industry. This will inform the development of an Agent Based computer simulation to assess the way diseases such as PEDv spread within the U.S. hog industry. Input from our advisory team and expert informants will be used to make a list of producers to contact for semi-structured in-person or telephone interviews. Results of phase one expert interview analysis will be summarized and presented in a research report for stakeholder groups and the gaming and education teams. Additionally, manuscripts and conference presentations will be developed and disseminated. The plan of the economics team (Iowa State University and Kansas State University collaborators) is to analyze and report results from the expert survey. The producer survey and a decision tool spreadsheet will be under development or early deployment by the end of this reporting period. Topics related to this grant will be presented in a plenary session and council sessions at the National Institute for Animal Agriculture annual meeting in April 2016. The Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation team (at the University of Vermont) intends to continue efforts on three fronts: 1) examining the role of information uncertainty on adoption rates of new animal health protocols, 2) examining the role of risk in compliance with existing animal health protocols, including starting to assess the effects of risk messaging to help increase compliance with existing protocols, and 3) examining current social network structures to detect critical nodes of potential disease percolation. Hypotheses are based on multiple theories of social behavior, primarily the theory of planned behavior and maximum expected utility. Multiple quantitative tools will be used to gather and test data, including games coded using the R programming language and games coded using the Unity platform. Agent-based modeling will be used to direct simulation and examine social network structures, such as transportation and production networks in the swine industry. An evaluation specialist will be overseeing the developmental progress of this objective as it is integrating information from the efforts of multiple objectives. The education team (consultant McDonald, Washington State University, and Montana State University collaborators) plans to complete six learning objects for 4-H youth. All six will be piloted and revised as necessary. An evaluation specialist will be working with the team to oversee evaluation of the learning objects. At the project team meeting in May 2016, input will be gathered from collaborators on which demographic to target next for educational products, based on their research to date regarding target audiences, most effective messages, and motivations.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Emerging diseases of socio-economic importance have food security, perceived food safety, and domestic and international trade implications for the marketing of animals or animal products. Understanding the human behavioral dimensions of the introduction, spread, identification, reporting, and containment of new, emerging and foreign pests and diseases of livestock is critically important for developing effective strategies to sustain a productive, profitable and secure food animal sector. Experts in animal science and veterinary medicine, agricultural economics, public policy, anthropology, adult education and risk communication have come together to lead this inter-disciplinary applied research and outreach project focused on enhancing biosecurity practices and strategies to reduce the impact of incursions of new, emerging or foreign pests or diseases of dairy, beef and swine. Through engagement with project activities, stakeholders in U.S. dairy, beef and pork production will be encouraged to implement practices and policies that collectively reduce the impact and threat of new, emerging and foreign pests and diseases to the nation's meat and milk supply. Our first year activities have focused on modeling the pork production chain and understanding the impact of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, a recent emerging disease in the swine sector. Objective 1: Characterize determinants of behavior of stakeholders at critical control points where application of practices or protocols can prevent (or reduce the impact of) incursions of pests and diseases of cattle, pigs and small ruminants. An expert interview research protocol was developed and received IRB approval at the University of Vermont and University of Central Florida. The protocol includes two interview guides, one for risk communication strategy assessment, and the other for the SEGS lab agent-based modelling calibration. The protocol included detailed information on the hog industry collected from Co-PIs and Advisory Committee members at the November meeting in Chicago and thereafter. Approval from the IRB was also received to allow sharing of additional data relevant to producer perceptions from a previous project. Subject matter experts were identified and are being interviewed to determine the critical control points for reducing the spread of animal diseases in the pork industry. Of particular interest are communication strengths and weaknesses at these control points. Objective 2. Determine economic attractiveness of solutions that enhance biosecurity. An expert survey has been designed (under the guidance of Iowa State University and Kansas State University collaborators) and will be distributed early in 2016 to swine, beef cattle, and dairy cattle experts. The main insights of this survey will be used in initial assessments of economic attractiveness in various biosecurity measures available for mitigating Tier 1 disease risks. Moreover, this survey will be used to subsequently shape producer surveys that will dive deeper into economic considerations directly from the producer's perspective. Objective 3. Determine most effective communication strategies (message tactic and wording, channels, and sources). The groundwork for this objective was reported under Objective 1. Objective 4. Integrate disease characteristics, human risk perception and socio-economic influences on behavior in a simulated "game" environment. The Social Ecological Gaming and Simulation team received approval for the following three protocols from the University of Vermont's Institutional Review Board: (1) a protocol for experimental games which examine human behavioral approaches to reducing the impact of livestock pest or disease incursions of socio-economic importance, (2) a protocol allowing for the use of Twitter and Amazon Mechanical Turks to recruit participants for online experimental games, and (3) a protocol covering interviews and expert input surveys. Initial experimental games were designed and implemented in R. Forty-three of 100 expected participants played the game and completed a post-play survey as of March 14, 2016. Individuals interested in playing experimental games are being added to a participant database. Two agent based computer models have been developed to assess epidemiological characteristics of the hog production chain. The effect of producer specialization on disease percolation across the hog production chain network was simulated. A manuscript is in preparation. Objective 5. Develop educational and outreach materials and methods that lead to measurable changes in attitude and behaviors at critical control points in cattle, swine and small ruminant production systems. Under the guidance of Dr. McDonald, the educational outreach team (including collaborators at Washington State University and Montana State University) has assembled a Development Team and determined the subjects and learning objectives for the first six learning objects. Development was delayed by bureaucratic issues and the need to recruit a new digital designer for the project. The first learning object has reached the peer review phase. The design and storyboard for the second learning object is nearing completion, and will be handed over for digital design. Investigators and educators involved in similar projects have been contacted to explore areas of synergism and holes to fill. It appears from these discussions that there is little developed for K-12 education related to biosecurity, so the initial focus on biosecurity education modules for 4-H clubs (grades 4-12) is a good place to start. However, designing and developing learning objects so that they can be used with 4th graders up through 12th graders is proving challenging.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schulz, L.L. and G.T. Tonsor. 2015. Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus in the United States. Journal of Animal Science 93(11):5111-5118.