Performing Department
Office of Sponsored Projects
Non Technical Summary
Water allocation institutions are fundamental to agricultural production in the arid Western US, where growing seasonprecipitation is negligible, surface and groundwater sources account for over 90% of agricultural water use, and water rights are fully allocated. Mountain snowpack, a significant source of water for the region, provides natural storage and controls timing of water releases. Built water storage and delivery infrastructure and water rights institutions evolved with the expectation of unchanged mountain snowmelt-timing patterns. But those patterns no longer represent current and future snowpack patterns. In particular, changes in timing pose challenges for agricultural water rights holders. Peak flows that occur too early to use in agricultural production increase economic risks to agriculture. It has been demonstrated that earlier snowmelt can generate less available water for agricultural producers with senior water rights, and more available water for junior non-agricultural water rights holders. While trends indicate earlier peak flows, they also suggest increased variability. Impacts are not limited to greater year-to-year variation in yields and income; increased risk also influences private decisions to sell irrigation water rights and lands, causing permanent losses in the capacity for food production in the arid west. Decision-making can be improved with a better understanding of how changes in water flows influence agricultural producer decision-making, and how water institutions can exacerbate or relieve constraints from these changes.Analysts predict that water management in the western US will undergo extensive changes to adapt to mountain snow melt patterns, with a focus on water allocation institutions. In response to recent conflicts, where existing water allocation institutions have failed to allocate water in accordance with all rights holders' expectations, states have exercised their rights to intervene to limit permitted water rights. The prospect of more instances of state intervention to resolve conflict has generated interest in whether and how to modify water institutions to perform better with changing conditions. Yet, there are few empirical studies of the implications of changing mountain snowpack and snowmelt timing on water available for agriculture, and of the ability of water institutions to manage economic impacts on agriculture and food production. Modifications to water allocation institutions may hasten the rate at which lands permanently transition out of agriculture, and could generate negative impacts to agricultural producers who currently hold more valuable senior rights, while favoring non-agricultural junior rights holders. Alternatively, inflexible institutions could result in rights holders' wasting water or being reluctant to adopt conservation technology to avoid risk of losing water rights.More empirical information is needed regarding how changes in mountain snowpack will affect available water; which basins in the arid west t are most at risk; the effectiveness of existing water allocation institutions in managing these changes, in comparison with proposed modifications of water rights institutions; and how changes in available water and institutional responses affect the distribution of economic well-being of groups in society, including the sustainability of agricultural production in the arid west. This information is essential to 3 sets of decision-makers: regional, state and federal water policy-makers whose interests are the design of policies and institutions to improve efficiency of water allocation and net benefits to society; local water district managers as they determine in the short run, and according to the institutions and rules set forth by policy, where and when to divert water flows from the various sources through their systems to end users, in response to variations in those sources; and individual agricultural producers and other water rights holders who in deciding how they will use water as a productive input and how they will respond to changes in the asset value of their water rights. To be of value to decision-makers, empirical information must be provided in a manner that specifically addresses the decision problems at hand. This means that timing, format, units of measurement, accessibility, and other attributes of empirical information need to be designed to be of practical use to improve decision-making outcomes, using a common core of information products.Finally, more information is needed regarding criteria for successful governance regarding changes in resource endowments. Decision-making processes regarding proposed changes to water allocation institutions, rights structures, and policies must acknowledge power disparities that may exist among divergent and competing demands for limited water supplies, allow the various stakeholders to be express their interests, and address both direct and indirect distributional implications of proposed policy changes, while leading to multilaterally agreeable outcomes.With a team of 11 Co-PI's from 6 institutions in 3 states representing several academic disciplines, this project uses economics as the basic approach to identify how changes in mountain snowpack affect water allocation and agriculture in the arid west, the decision-makers who must address these problems, and the nature and format of information needed for decision-making regarding water allocation to take into account direct and indirect impacts and diverse interests. This approach unifies project components, and provides a perspective that goes beyond the primary end-users of the science, placing it in the context of the larger community. Methods used to collect data, perform analyses and inform target audiences include:In collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, modify the National Water Model (NWM) to predict amount, timing, and flow rates of surface water as affected by changes in mountain snowpack;Generate climate scenarios to represent projected shifts, as inputs to the NWM;Use NWM outputs as inputs to local water district-level allocation models, incorporating alternative water institutions;Develop an economic simulation model using output from the NWM to predict changes in uses and value of water, as affected by changes in snowpack and allocative institutions;Develop econometric model of the economic value of seniority of appropriative water rights, using data from case study basins;Evaluate water institutions using economic efficiency and distributional criteria;Conduct stakeholder analyses to identify participants for a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) which will collaborate with scientists throughout the project;Generate water footprints for case study basins in Nevada, Colorado and Arizona;Evaluate outcomes from economic models using alternative water allocation institutions and NWM outputs, incorporating TAG participation;Conduct evaluation of water allocation governance with TAG participation;Develop and disseminate Extension outreach products;Conduct external project evaluation throughout project, incorporating feedback.The project's ultimate goals are to develop and apply replicable methods for anticipating changes in mountain snow pack, evaluate the ability of existing and alternative water institutions to respond to these changes, assess short and long run impacts on agriculture and food production, and design a collaborative framework to enhance participation of diverse interests to address these changes. General impacts of meeting these goals will be improved ability to adapt to fluctuations in water availability from changing mountain snow pack to manage agricultural risk, and improved individual and collective policy decision-making concerning water allocation and agriculture in the arid western states and elsewhere, leading to more resilient food systems.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
60%
Applied
25%
Developmental
15%
Goals / Objectives
This project will produce knowledge necessary to support science-based and economically informed decision-making to adapt to climate change in the arid west, where shifts in the timing and quantities of mountain snowmelt-derived water supplies affect availability of irrigation water and agricultural productivity. A collaborative research framework will be used to develop a hydrologic-climate model that will provide the inputs of probability of available water and timing for economic models to simulate a range of producer impacts from climate induced water supply variability. These will provide insight into costs and benefits of changes to water allocation institutions. A replicable collaborative research framework will ensure that regional stakeholders work with researchers to inform the hydro-climate economic model to demonstrates empirically the impact on food production of modifications to water allocation institutions under a range of hydro-climate conditions and institutional realities such as water rights seniority. This decision-support tool will improve the usefulness of evidence based adaptation strategies and actions, including modifications to water allocation institutions, to sustain the availability of water for agriculture in the Arid West.Objectives:1) Produce a hydrological-climate model to predict water availability for monthly time steps to account for within season changes in timing of flows, projected over 30 years, using methods applicable to other regions in the continental US. The model will simulate water flows to include snowmelt, streamflow, and reservoir storage, with mathematical representations of the different hydrologic processes, incorporating the operation of surface water storage features. The model will generate and quantify probability distributions of future water availability using outcomes from atmospheric models of future climate scenarios. Outputs will include 30-year forecasts for water supply in the Arid West that can be regularly updated, as well as probability distributions for water availability with monthly time steps consistent with agricultural producers' decisions.2) Populate 3 case study basin-specific water allocation operations models with results from the hydrologic-climate to develop future scenarios for water allocations for these basins. These modified operations models will provide inputs to economic models.3) Produce an economic model to simulate policy level decisions to alter built storage, transfer water, and modify institutions influence these flows. Water allocations provided to end users are the result of flows into a basin and managers' applications of water institutions using operations models; thereby, ultimately influencing producers' decisions, crops planted, yields, and number and timing of water rights transfers from agriculture to other uses. Create a tool from the model that allows an end user to manipulate parameters and explore outcomes.4) Produce a second economic model to represent individual producer profit maximization with hydro-climate simulation outputs for the 3 study basins, incorporating dynamics between multiple producers, spatial details, crops, return flows with constraints to simulate existing and alternative water institutions, and storage management. Create tools that allow end users to manipulate parameters and explore outcomes from interactions between the economic and water allocation operations models for use by water managers.5) Produce a third economic model estimate the extent to which existing water institutions and previous modifications to these institutions have enabled water to flow from lower to higher valued agricultural uses, providing a baseline for evaluating performance of existing institutions.6) Develop a collaborative research framework as relevant for 3 case study regions in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada to aid in building stakeholder trust in scientists and incorporate local knowledge and preferences into the research. The framework will include a stakeholder analysis and a Technical Advisory Group (TAG).7) Improve stakeholder decision-making about resource use, through enhancement of their ability to evaluate and use hydrologic-climate simulation results, economic modeling results, and analyses of water rights and allocation institutions. We will empirically test and refine these improvements with stakeholders in 3 case study basins.8) Implement a comprehensive evaluation plan, based on external evaluation.
Project Methods
1.a With the National Center for Atmospheric Research, adapt the National Water Model (NWM) to the Arid West with historical data from 1980 through present to generate retrospective simulations to compare with actual observations of streamflow, snow, and reservoir storage for validation. Data are available from North American Land Data Assimilation System datasets, from Co-PIs Rajagopal and Harpold, and publicly available databases. Establish a procedure to develop, validate, and implement the hydrologic-climate (HC) model to produce water availability predictions with snow dynamics replicable for other regions.1.b Use the HC model to quantify annual and within season water supply by source for the region, and 3 study basins. Quantify supply by extracting the streamflow, reservoir, snowmelt, and groundwater fluxes from model runs to produce 3 decades of predictions of historical water supply by source at basin scale with monthly timesteps for surface, groundwater/recharge, reservoir, and snowmelt data.1.c Develop climate scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) projections. CMIP3 and CMIP5 generate hundreds of climate projections. A subset will be used to create future climate scenarios to input into the HC model to quantify the contributions of snow and its changing dynamics, and identify basins where snowpacks are likely to experience the most dramatic change on the amount and timing of water availability. Net water available for agriculture will be partitioned to storage in groundwater, surface water, and snow during historical and future climate to assess how availability of groundwater and surface water storage mitigates loss of water for agriculture. Using monthly outputs from 30-year simulations, develop probability density functions to characterize stochastic variables for snow storage, streamflow, reservoir storage, groundwater recharge for basins with agricultural activity. Outcomes will be used to identify basins where available water for agriculture are at risk due to reduced snow storage.1.d Develop hydrologic inputs for basin level water operations and management models used in study basins, identify the nodes where the water management model requires inputs from the HC model. Project scientists will work with consultants from basins who run operations software and economics doctoral students to incorporate results into software for site-specific outcomes as inputs to water management models and economics models.2.a Develop a stochastic dynamic economic model with a social planner's perspective using outputs from the HC simulations for water timing and flow within seasons and annually. Stylized benefit functions will represent groups of users. Use this model to produce analytical solutions and general results regarding how distributions of benefits and costs among the user groups change with timing and amounts of water, institutions, and storage capacity.2.b Develop spatially explicit economic models to simulate profit maximizing producer responses to climate-induced changes in surface water availability represented by the HC model simulations. We will experiment with data from water allocation operations models to parameterize this model, including information collected on water rights, planting decisions and crop yields for our 3 study basins, to calculate net benefit functions. We will forecast shifts in agricultural production over time in terms of crop type, location, irrigation timing, and subsequent water demand, including producers' adaptations to changes in available water. We will use the model to address questions such as: How do producers under a range of hydrologic conditions respond to interannual variability in surface water supplies? What is the role of planting-season information and how best to model responses to shocks? What is the distribution of water supply faced by producers under a range of hydrologic and institutional scenarios, so that we consider combinations of conditions that include relevant institutions? How does stochastic water supply influence producer decisions? Under what conditions is it optimal for producers to leave land fallow, and/or to sell water rights? How do total amounts of water rights in agriculture and food production vary over time under alternative institutional and storage scenarios?2.c Estimate an econometric model that explains parcel-level water seniority as a function of variables that capture productivity and historical data for changes in water rights location to determine to what extent prior appropriations historically allowed water to flow from lower to higher valued agricultural uses. Develop the dataset using secondary sources (property tax data, historical water rights, crops, soil type, and productivity). This model was initially developed using data for Nevada's Carson-Truckee Basin. We will replicate the data collection and model for the Walker Basin, and in an area in the South Platte Basin where groundwater institutions were changed to bring them into a seniority system for surface water. The change in institutions create a natural experiment that we would exploit to determine whether institutional changes influenced the rate of water moving from lower to higher valued uses, while staying in agriculture.2.d Use economic efficiency and distributional criteria to quantify tradeoffs implied by alternative institutions and/or modification of existing institutions. This includes effects on private incentives to transfer or retain water rights for agricultural use.3.a Conduct stakeholder analysis to optimally select key stakeholders for a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) that will represent the following sectors: 1) regional, state, and local water policymakers; 2) regional and local technical experts tasked with forecasting annual water availability for agricultural withdrawals; 3) irrigation district managers tasked with delivering water allocated annually for agricultural production; and 4) agricultural producers tasked with decision-making at the farm level to maximize profit. The TAG will work with project researchers to review and validate HC-economics model research findings; co-design and validate visualization strategies to educate decision-makers; co-disseminate research findings over the life of project; and evaluate the project progress.3.b Collaborate with the TAG to assess institutional capacity to support agriculture under changing conditions, focusing on the choices that individuals make within particular political, economic, community, and biophysical contexts. Our analysis will highlight the role of water institutions on adaptation capacity to develop a generalizable conceptual framework for assessing arid west agricultural systems stressed by reduced snowpack and flows, refined with stakeholders in the case study basins.3.c Generate water footprints for the case study basins as dynamic visualizations demonstrating impacts of agricultural water policies and decisions on regional urban food supplies, geographically and over time. Map agricultural supply chains within the project's target locations. For each planning scenario and future, develop water footprints for target locations and agricultural products to quantify the water intensity of products. We will develop web-based publicly accessible visualizations of agricultural supply chains and communicate them to targeted stakeholder groups.3.d Develop Extension outreach products to report on best practices relating to the collaborative research framework and the use of HCM-economic models to support decisions concerning water institutions. Outreach products include dynamic visualizations, printed materials, video, social media, small group discussion, and individual technical support as requested.4. Work with external evaluator throughout project, regularly and systeamtially incorporating feedback.