Source: ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION submitted to
CLIMATE
Sponsoring Institution
Forest Service/USDA
Project Status
REVISED
Funding Source
USDA INHOUSE
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0413550
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
RMRS-4255-5
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
May 24, 2009
Project End Date
May 24, 2019
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Finch, D.
Recipient Organization
ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION
240 WEST PROSPECT ROAD
FORT COLLINS,CO 80526-2098
Performing Department
(N/A)
Non Technical Summary
Understanding the structural and functional relationships and interactions between past and present climate, the geomorphic setting, natural disturbance regimes, and the anthropogenic history for impacting grassland, shrubland and desert ecosystems is necessary to determine ecosystem stability , resilience, or change in response to future climate changes. To sustain or restore both ecosystem function and ecosystem services we need to better understand the interactions between the mix of human and natural disturbances, the critical thresholds associated with each, and how they will be affected by climate change. A major complication of this goal is the increasing presence of invasive species and our limited understanding of what controls community stability. Effective restoration following disturbance also requires better understanding of why the observed changes have occurred, particularly where climate change has had, and will have, a major influence. Climates have changed constantly over the last two million years. Considerable biotic change has resulted from the north-south and elevational migrations of plant species that has occurred throughout the region in response to past climate change during both the Pleistocene and the Holocene. Climate changes have also been linked to geomorphic driven abiotic changes. Plant species have responded independently to these past changes in climate and geomorphology, resulting in periodic reshuffling of community composition, particularly when the biotic or abiotic changes result in thresholds being crossed. Long-term changes in natural disturbance patterns, in geomorphic processes and in vegetation dynamics, will continue into the future as a result of changes in local envronmental conditions resulting from climate change and anthropogenetically driven global change. These changes will increasingly alter the environmental and biotic interactions with unknown affects on the structural and functional relationships of ecosystems, and their ability to provide ecosystem services.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
75%
Applied
25%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
13204301070100%
Knowledge Area
132 - Weather and Climate;

Subject Of Investigation
0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;
Goals / Objectives
Acquire an improved understanding of climate and climate variability as drivers of past and present grassland, shrubland, and desert flora and faunal compositions, distributions, and ecosystem processes to assist in devising meaningful management scenarios for responding to potential future climatic changes
Project Methods
1.Continue to develop an understanding of how Great Basin upland and riparian plant communities have responded to past climate changes; to provide better understanding of how vegetation may respond to the interactions of disturbance from future climate changes and land use activities, of critical thresholds that may be involved, and of their ability to maintain ecosystem services. 2.Continue landscape scale studies of changes in pinyon-juniper woodlands over the last 150 years to better understand how those woodland changes are anomalous when compared to the previous three to four centuries. Identify existing and potential future thresholds in the landscapes, and how they will determine future conditions. With the majority of these ongoing changes occurring over the next 50 years, the expected result will be an increase in the size and intensity of wildfires, and the loss of ecosystem services. Research will continue on identifying the landscape locations, the extent and any thresholds associated with these changes, including the risk of conversion to dominance by invasive grasses and forbs. 3.Continue identification of the past and possible future geomorphic changes associated with climate change that strongly influence plant community distribution, and responses to disturbance along riparian corridors provided by the Ecosystem Management Project for Restoring and Maintaining Great Basin Riparian Ecosystems with emphasis on identification of critical thresholds. 4.Continue the development of methods for maintaining and restoring riparian communities and their ecosystem services based on information on how they are affected by climate change provided by the ongoing Ecosystem Management Project for Restoring and Maintaining Great Basin Riparian Ecosystems. 5.Identify the influences of climate, fire, and succession on landscape dynamics of western National Parks and how they will be altered by climate change. 6.Identify how climate change will affect the distribution and abundance of vegetation on the southern Colorado Plateau and Great Basin. 7.Continue research on current plant-climate relationships in the western US, and on how climate change will affect those relationships and the landscape distribution of key ecosystems. 8.Identify and assess the impacts of climate change on forest and rangeland resources of the US. 9.Update long-term investigations regarding the interactions of climate variability, climate change and the expansion of invasive species, its effects on sagebrush and salt-desert grass-shrubland composition and stability, its effects on wildlife habitat, and its effects on livestock forage availability. 10.Explore the role of climate variation as a driver of historic fire regimes at local to sub-continental scales, and use to anticipate how they may be influenced or altered by climate change. 11.Identify and evaluate grassland ecosystem health indicators that can be incorporated into models of ecological succession, with particular reference to identifying thresholds to natural stresses and human-induced disturbances and their modification by climate change.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This problem area seeks to understand the role of a dynamic climate in maintaining or perturbing the macro-level stability of ecosystems and individual species of the Interior West. It seeks to understand the degree of resilience and resistance of ecosystems and individual species in the face of a changing climatic environment. It explores the vulnerability of ecosystems and species to climate change. The problem area also looks at the environmental record stored in tree rings, packrat middens, and other sources to see how ecosystems have responded to climate change in the past with the hope of providing insight into how they may respond to contemporary changes. Rocky Mountain Research Station scientists have developed a coupled modeling approach that combines species distribution modeling, fire behavior models, and vulnerability assessments to generate spatially explicit estimates of species⿿ vulnerability to the interactive effects of climate change and fire. Building upon a risk matrix method developed by the Northern Research Station and vulnerability assessment tools developed by RMRS, we are quantifying the effects of fire and climate change on native and nonnative species residing within New Mexico riparian, wetland, and associated upland habitats. Thoney, Ford and others present a summary of studies that focus on key components of carbon exchange including, photosynthesis, soil respiration and plant productivity across the warm deserts of North America to determine if common trends exist that can be utilized in management. We also provide an overview of how management practices can influence carbon sequestration in this region. Since desertification is projected to increase in the future, management strategies that increase carbon sequestration or decrease carbon loss are especially important. Xeric rangelands tend to be in carbon balance or are small carbon sources, whereas more mesic rangelands function primarily as carbon sinks. When warm desert rangelands do function as carbon sinks, it is for relatively short periods following adequate rainfall. This requires managers to thoughtfully consider management practices that do not impede sequestration during critical times. We provide an overview of how management practices influence carbon sequestration and discuss the USDA Forest Service Climate Change Scorecard which addresses carbon sequestration and provides fundamental questions for managers to address when reporting on their accomplishments towards developing land management strategies in the context of climate change. PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Arizona -Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The National Seed Laboratory. The Nature Conservancy. The Forest Guild. USDA Climate Hubs and USDI Climate Science Centers, as well as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Department of Defense. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State forestry and fish and game agencies in the Interior West states. The Bureau of Land Management. Non-profit organizations. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Add Kasten Dumroese, Jeremy Pinto, and Paulette Ford to this project/problem area.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development. The goal of this problem area is to supply credible information and considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change. All species are predicted to experience a change in distribution of suitable habitat over time and express varying capacities to deal with those changes. Research results point to management strategies that focus on preserving biodiversity hotspots and implementing fire treatments for high importance/high risk areas. The latest vulnerability assessment project has developed a framework for integrating habitat models with vulnerability assessments that can be applied to other species and geographic area. Analysis data provides managers with the information to identify potential intervention points or the location of critical habitats for protection or preservation to better support species' conservation under climate change. Under the current rate of climate change, migration and adaptive responses of native plants will likely fall behind. Seed transfer guidelines and zones are used to guide the movement of plant materials, but by the end of the century, many landscapes in the U.S. will have climates that are incompatible with current vegetation. Thus, current transfer guidelines and zones will have limited use given the dynamic changes in climate. One adaptation strategy at the nexus of native plant transfer guidelines and climate change is assisted migration, defined as the intentional movement of plants in response to climate change. Although researchers have proposed frameworks and guidelines on how to apply assisted migration of native plants, there is no consensus on implementation in the U.S. because of concern over ecological and economic risks and lack of supporting data. To identify knowledge gaps and provide a central foundation for collaboration in generating research questions, conducting studies, transferring and acquiring data, expanding studies to key species and geographic regions, and guiding native plant transfer, we compiled a literary database about native plant transfer guidelines, climate change, and assisted migration. The database connects all pieces of information from peer-review journal articles to decision-support tools. As a result of our investigative efforts, we have informed scientists, land managers, and university students about climate change and assisted migration through presentations and publications, including co-hosting a holistic-approach workshop that covered the historical, biological, social, legal, and ethical aspects of assisted migration and 4 published articles by Williams and Dumroese. Our research has and will continue to transfer current information to scientists, land managers, policymakers and the general public about climate change and adaptive strategies pertaining to native plant species toward maintaining resilient, functional ecosystems across the landscape. The synthesis of research on carbon storage in warm deserts is useful to land managers tasked with managing carbon storage through manipulations and management of vegetation.

Publications

  • Bagne, Karen E.; Friggens, Megan M.; Coe, Sharon J.; Finch, Deborah M. 2014. The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management. doi: 10.3996/052013-JFWM-039.
  • Bagne, Karen E; Finch, Deborah M. 2013. Changing desert shrublands, past and present. The unexpected science behind managing our natural resources. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/narratives/climate-change-blackbrush.shtml
  • Daniels, Amy; Shaw, Nancy; Peterson, Dave; Nislow, Keith; Tomosy, Monica; Rowland, Mary. 2014. Facing climate change in forests and fields. The Wildlife Society News. Online: http://news.wildlife.org/twp/2014-spring/facing-climate-change-in-forests-and-f ields/
  • Daniels, Amy; Shaw, Nancy; Peterson, Dave; Nislow, Keith; Tomosy, Monica; Rowland, Mary. 2014. Facing climate change in forests and fields: U.S. Forest Service taps into science-management partnerships. The Wildlife Professional. (Spring 2014): 31-35.
  • Delph, Robert J.; Clifford, Michael J.; Cobb, Neil S.; Ford, Paulette L.; Brantley, Sandra L. 2014. Pinyon pine mortality alters communities of ground-dwelling arthropods. Western North American Naturalist. 74(2): 162-184.
  • Friggens, M.; Bagne, K.; Finch, D.; Falk, D.; Triepke, J.; Lynch, A. 2013. Review and recommendations for climate change vulnerability assessment approaches with examples from the Southwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-309. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 106 p.
  • Hardegree, Stuart P.; Moffet, Corey A.; Flerchinger, Gerald N.; Cho, Jaepil; Roundy, Bruce A.; Jones, Thomas A.; James, Jeremy J.; Clark, Patrick E.; Pierson, Frederick B. 2013. Hydrothermal assessment of temporal variability in seedbed microclimate. Rangeland Ecology and Management. 66(2): 127-135.
  • Johnson, R. C.; Hellier, Barbara C.; Vance-Borland, Ken W. 2013. Genecology and seed zones for tapertip onion in the US Great Basin. Botany. 91(10): 686-694.
  • Kilkenny, Francis; St. Clair, Brad; Horning, Matt. 2013. Climate change and the future of seed zones. In: Haase, D. L.; Pinto, J. R.; Wilkinson, K. M., tech. coord. National Proceedings: Forest and Conservation Nursery Associations - 2012. Proceedings RMRS-P-69. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station: 87-89.
  • Ladwig, Laura M.; Collins, Scott L.; Ford, Paulette L.; White, Laura B. 2014. Chihuahuan desert grassland respond similarly to fall, spring, and summer fires during prolonged drought. Rangeland Ecology and Management. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.2111/REM-D-13-00133.1
  • Ladwig, Laura Marie. 2014. Abiotic drivers of Chihuahuan Desert plant communities. Albuquerque, NM. University of New Mexico. 140 p. Dissertation.
  • Moran, M. Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Huete, Alfredo; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Zhang, Yongguang; Hamerlynck, Erik P.; Augustine, David J.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Peters, Debra P. C.; Starks, Patrick J.; Hernandez, Mariano. 2014. Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought. Ecology. 95(8): 2121-2133.
  • Nelson, Zachary J.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Kitchen, Stanley G. 2014. Influence of climate and environment on post-fire recovery of mountain big sagebrush. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23: 131-142.
  • Ojima, Dennis S.; Iverson, Louis R.; Sohngen, Brent L.; Vose, James M.; Woodall, Christopher W.; Domke, Grant M.; Peterson, David L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Matthews, Stephen N.; Prasad, Anantha M.; Peters, Matthew P.; Yohe, Gary W.; Friggens, Megan M. 2014. Risk assessment [Chapter 9]. In: Peterson, D.L.; Vose, J.M.; Patel-Weynand, T., eds. Climate change and United States forests. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer: 223-244.
  • Petrie, Mathew Daniel. 2014. Community ecology, climate change and ecohydrology in desert grassland and shrubland. Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico. 90 p. Dissertation.
  • Reeves, Matthew C.; Moreno, Adam L.; Bagne, Karen E.; Running, Steven W. 2014. Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States. Climatic Change. 126: 429-442.
  • Richardson, Bryce A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Pendleton, Rosemary L.; Pendleton, Burton K.; Germino, Matthew J.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Meyer, Susan E. 2014. Adaptive responses reveal contemporary and future ecotypes in a desert shrub. Ecological Applications. 24(2): 413-427.
  • Thomey, Michell L.; Ford, Paulette L.; Reeves, Matt C.; Finch, Deborah M.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Collins, Scott L. 2014. Review of climate change impacts on future carbon stores and management of warm deserts of the United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-316. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 26 p.
  • Thomey, Michell L.; Ford, Paulette L.; Reeves, Matthew C.; Finch, Deborah M.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Collins, Scott L. 2014. Climate change impacts on future carbon stores and management of warm deserts of the United States. Rangelands. 36(1): 16-24.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2013. Growing assisted migration: Synthesis of a climate change adaptation strategy. In: Haase, D. L.; Pinto, J. R.; Wilkinson, K. M., technical coordinators. National Proceedings: Forest and Conservation Nursery Associations - 2012. Proceedings RMRS-P-69. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 90-96.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2014. Assisted migration: What it means to nursery managers and tree planters. Tree Planters' Notes. 57(1): 21-26.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2014. Planning the future's forests with assisted migration. In: Sample, V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings. Proceedings. RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 133-144.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2014. Role of climate change in reforestation and nursery practices. Western Forester. 59(1): 11-13.


Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This problem area seeks to understand the role of a dynamic climate in maintaining or perturbing the macro-level stability of ecosystems and individual species of the Interior West. It seeks to understand the degree of resilience and resistance of ecosystems and individual species in the face of a changing climatic environment. The problem area looks at the record stored in tree rings, packrat middens, and other sources to see how ecosystems have responded to climate change in the past with the hope of providing insight into how they may respond to contemporary changes. The USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, recently published a comprehensive report summarizing climate change research and potential effects on grassland, shrub, and desert ecosystems. The report, ⿿Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment,⿝ highlights current knowledge and future research essential to mitigate the prospective detrimental effects of climate change. It addresses animal, plant, and invasive species models and responses, vulnerabilities and genetic adaption, animal species and habitats, and decision support tools for restoration and land management. Findings from the report include: By the turn of the century, climate in the western U.S. may be incompatible with current vegetation types, resulting in shifting patterns of terrestrial ecosystems. In arid and semi-arid shrublands and deserts, invasive grass species with higher flammability, like cheatgrass, will spread and increase both fire frequency and extent. Increased temperatures can affect insect development time and result in significant increases in generations per year/per habitat and expose new environments to colonization. Increasing water scarcity such as disruption of water flow regimes, and river and wetland drying, are likely to become overriding conservation issues. Native intact cold desert shrublands can store 30 percent more carbon than the average regional flora and be restored as an alternative source of carbon sequestration. PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The Nature Conservancy. The Forest Guild. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Department of Defense. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State forestry and fish and game agencies in the Interior West states. The Bureau of Land Management PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: None.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development. The goal of this problem area is to supply credible information and considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change. Under the current rate of climate change, migration and adaptive responses of native plants will likely fall behind. Seed transfer guidelines and zones are used to guide the movement of plant materials, but by the end of the century, many landscapes in the U.S. will have climates that are incompatible with current vegetation. Thus, current transfer guidelines and zones will have limited use given the dynamic changes in climate. One adaptation strategy at the nexus of native plant transfer guidelines and climate change is assisted migration, defined as the intentional movement of plants in response to climate change. Although researchers have proposed frameworks and guidelines on how to apply assisted migration of native plants, there is no consensus on implementation in the U.S. because of concern over ecological and economic risks and lack of supporting data. To identify knowledge gaps and provide a central foundation for collaboration in generating research questions, conducting studies, transferring and acquiring data, expanding studies to key species and geographic regions, and guiding native plant transfer, we compiled a literary database about native plant transfer guidelines, climate change, and assisted migration. The database connects all pieces of information from peer-review journal articles to decision-support tools. As a result of our investigative efforts, we have informed scientists, land managers, and university students about climate change and assisted migration through presentations and publications, including co-hosting a holistic-approach workshop that covered the historical, biological, social, legal, and ethical aspects of assisted migration and a review article published in the Journal of Forestry (July/August 2013). Our research has and will continue to transfer current information to scientists, land managers, policymakers and the general public about climate change and adaptive strategies pertaining to native plant species toward maintaining resilient, functional ecosystems across the landscape.

Publications

  • Bagne, K.; Ford, P.; Reeves, M. (November 2012). Grasslands. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/grasslands/index.shtml
  • Bagne, Karen E.; Finch, Deborah M. 2013. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-302. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 183 p.
  • Bagne, Karen E; Finch, Deborah M. 2013. Changing desert shrublands, past and present. The unexpected science behind managing our natural resources. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/narratives/climate-change-blackbrush.shtml
  • Clifford, Michael J.; Royer, Patrick D.; Cobb, Neil S.; Breshears, David D.; Ford, Paulette L. 2013. Precipitation thresholds and drought-induced tree die-off: Insights from patterns of Pinus edulis mortality along an environmental stress gradient. New Phytologist. 200: 413-421.
  • Friggens, M.; Bagne, K.; Finch, D.; Falk, D.; Triepke, J.; Lynch, A. 2013. Review and recommendations for climate change vulnerability assessment approaches with examples from the Southwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-309. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 106 p.
  • King, David; Finch, Deborah M. 2013. The effects of climate change on terrestrial birds of North America. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/wildlife/birds/
  • Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E; Moran, M. Susan; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Yongguang; Bresloff, Cynthia; Huxman, Travis E.; Eamus, Derek; Bosch, David D.; Buda, Anthony R.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Scalley, Tamara Heartsill; Kitchen, Stanley G.; McClaran, Mitchel P.; McNab, W. Henry; Montoya, Diane S.; Morgan, Jack A.; Peters, Debra P. C.; Sadler, E. John; Seyfried, Mark S.; Starks, Patrick J. 2013. Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions. Nature. 494: 349-353.
  • St. Clair, John Bradley; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Johnson, Richard C.; Shaw, Nancy L.; Weaver, George. 2013. Genetic variation in adaptive traits and seed transfer zones for Pseudoroegneria spicata (bluebunch wheatgrass) in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications. 6(6): 933-948.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2013. Climatic change and assisted migration: Strategic options for forest and conservation nurseries. Forest Nursery Notes. 33(2): 33-35.
  • Williams, Mary I.; Dumroese, R. Kasten. 2013. Preparing for climate change: Forestry and assisted migration. Journal of Forestry. 111(4): 287-297.
  • Zhang, Yongguang; Moran, M. Susan; Nearing, Mark A.; Campos, Guillermo E. Ponce; Huete, Alfredo R.; Buda, Anthony R.; Bosch, David D.; Gunter, Stacey A.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; McNab, W. Henry; Morgan, Jack A.; McClaran, Mitchel P.; Montoya, Diane S.; Peters, Debra P.C.; Starks, Patrick J. 2013. Extreme precipitation patterns and reductions of terrestrial ecosystem production across biomes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 118: 1-10. doi: 10.1029/2012JG002136.
  • Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.; Bagne, Karen E.; Coe, Sharon J.; Hawksworth, David L. 2013. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: terrestrial species of the Middle Rio Grande. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-306. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 191 p.
  • Friggens, Megan M.; Matthews, Stephen N. 2012. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk Assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin. In: Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Patel-Weynand, Toral, eds. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-870. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 256-258.
  • Friggens, Megan M.; Matthews, Stephen N. 2012. Risk assessment for two bird species in northern Wisconsin. In: Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Patel-Weynand, Toral. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-870. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 256-258.


Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This problem area seeks to understand the role of a dynamic climate in maintaining or perturbing the macro-level stability of ecosystems and individual species of the Interior West. It seeks to understand the degree of resilience and resistance of ecosystems and individual species in the face of a changing climatic environment. The problem area looks at the record stored in tree rings, packrat middens, and other sources to see how ecosystems have responded to climate change in the past with the hope of providing insight into how they may respond to contemporary changes. The USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, recently published a comprehensive report summarizing climate change research and potential effects on grassland, shrub, and desert ecosystems. The report, ⿿Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment,⿝ highlights current knowledge and future research essential to mitigate the prospective detrimental effects of climate change. It addresses animal, plant, and invasive species models and responses, vulnerabilities and genetic adaption, animal species and habitats, and decision support tools for restoration and land management. Findings from the report include: By the turn of the century, climate in the western U.S. may be incompatible with current vegetation types, resulting in shifting patterns of terrestrial ecosystems. In arid and semi-arid shrublands and deserts, invasive grass species with higher flammability, like cheatgrass, will spread and increase both fire frequency and extent. Increased temperatures can affect insect development time and result in significant increases in generations per year/per habitat and expose new environments to colonization. Increasing water scarcity such as disruption of water flow regimes, and river and wetland drying, are likely to become overriding conservation issues. Native intact cold desert shrublands can store 30 percent more carbon than the average regional flora and be restored as an alternative source of carbon sequestration. PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The Nature Conservancy. The Forest Guild. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Department of Defense. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State forestry and fish and game agencies in the Interior West states. The Bureau of Land Management PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: None.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development. The goal of this problem area is to supply credible information and considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change.

Publications

  • Runyon, Justin B.; Butler, Jack L.; Friggens, Megan M.; Meyer, Susan E.; Sing, Sharlene E. 2012. Invasive species and climate change (Chapter 7). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 97-115.
  • Thomey, Michell L. 2012. The effects of precipitation variability on C4 photosynthesis, net primary production and soil respiration in a Chihuahuan desert grassland. Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico. 117 p. Dissertation.
  • Meyer, Susan E. 2012. Restoring and managing cold desert shrublands for climate change mitigation (Chapter 2). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 21-34.
  • Miller, Jerry R.; Lord, Mark L.; Villarroel, Lionel F.; Germanoski, Dru; Chambers, Jeanne C. 2012. Structural organization of process zones in upland watersheds of central Nevada and its influence on basin connectivity, dynamics, and wet meadow complexes. Geomorphology. 139-140: 384-402.
  • Richardson, Bryce A.; Meyer, Susan E. 2012. Paleoclimate effects and geographic barriers shape regional population genetic structure of blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima: Rosaceae). Botany. 90: 293-299.
  • Richardson, Bryce A.; Shaw, Nancy L.; Pendleton, Rosemary L. 2012. Plant vulnerabilities and genetic adaptation (Chapter 4). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 48-59.
  • Bagne, Karen E.; Finch, Deborah M. 2012. Vulnerability of species to climate change in the Southwest: threatened, endangered, and at-risk species at the Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-284. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 139 p.
  • Bagne, Karen; Finch, Deborah, eds. 2012. GSD Update (No. 6). Albuquerque, NM: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 6(August). 7 p.
  • Brantley, Sandra L.; Ford, Paulette L. 2012. Climate change and arthropods: Pollinators, herbivores, and others (Chapter 3). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 35-47.
  • Coe, Sharon J.; Finch, Deborah M.; Friggens, Megan M. 2012. An assessment of climate change and the vulnerability of wildlife in the Sky Islands of the Southwest. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-273. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 208 p.
  • Davison, Jennifer E.; Coe, Sharon; Finch, Deborah; Rowland, Erika; Friggens, Megan; Graumlich, Lisa J. 2012. Bringing indices of species vulnerability to climate change into geographic space: an assessment across the Coronado national forest. Biodiversity and Conservation. 21: 189-204.
  • Finch, Deborah M., ed. 2012. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 139 p.
  • Finch, Deborah M.; Smith, D. Max; LeDee, Olivia; Cartron, Jean-Luc E.; Rumble, Mark A. 2012. Climate change, animal species, and habitats: Adaptation and issues (Chapter 5). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 60-79.
  • Ford, Paulette L.; Chambers, Jeanne K.; Coe, Sharon J.; Pendleton, Burton C. 2012. Disturbance and Climate Change in the Interior West (Chapter 6). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 80-96.
  • Friggens, Megan M.; Pinto, Jeremiah R.; Dumroese, R. Kasten; Shaw, Nancy L. 2012. Decision support: Vulnerability, conservation, and restoration (Chapter 8). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 116-139.
  • Friggens, Megan M.; Warwell, Marcus V.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Kitchen, Stanley G. 2012. Modeling and predicting vegetation response of western USA grasslands, shrublands, and deserts to climate change (Chapter 1). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 1-20.
  • Ma, S. M.; Zhang, M. L.; Sanderson, S. C. 2012. Phylogeography of the rare Gymnocarpos przewalskii (Caryophyllaceae): indications of multiple glacial refugia in north-western China. Australian Journal of Botany. 60: 20-31.
  • Meyer, Susan E. 2011. Is climate change mitigation the best use of desert shrublands? In: Monaco, Thomas A.; Schupp, Eugene W.; Pendleton, Rosemary L.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Palacios, Patsy K. Proceedings of the 16th Wildland Shrub Symposium: Threats to Shrubland Ecosystem Integrity; 2010 May 18-20 Logan, UT. Natural Resources and Environmental Issues: Vol. 17, Article 1. p. 1-10.


Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This problem area seeks to understand the role of a dynamic climate in maintaining or perturbing the macro-level stability of ecosystems and individual species of the Interior West. It seeks to understand the degree of resilience and resistance of ecosystems and individual species in the face of a changing climatic environment. The problem area looks at the record stored in tree rings, packrat middens, and other sources to see how ecosystems have responded to climate change in the past with the hope of providing insight into how they may respond to contemporary changes. Highlight 1: Analyses of molecular and quantitative genetic data demonstrate the existence of congruent climate-related patterns in western white pine (Pinus monticola). Two independent studies allowed comparisons of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers with quantitative variation in adaptive traits. Principal component analyses were conducted on seedling traits in common gardens collected from 58 sites; principal coordinate analyses were conducted on AFLP data from 15 sites. Collection site eigenvector means were regressed on 35 climate variables to produce a genecological prediction for each data set. Both predictions explained a large percentage (>70%) of the genetic variation from the first eigenvector from similar predictors involving the interaction growing season precipitation and temperature. Both predictions were significant (P < 0:01), and projected genecological maps were largely congruent. The predominant pattern from the first eigenvector was two major groups, a northern and a southern, connected by a steep cline across the crest of the southern Cascade Range of Oregon. This cline was associated with growth potential in the adaptive traits. These results suggest that divergent climatic selection has influenced phenotypic traits associated with growth. Furthermore, the congruence of AFLPs suggests a linkage between some loci and genomic regions under selection and/or climatic influences on postmating reproductive success. Highlight 2. Spatial climate models were developed for Mexico and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961-1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1ÿ°C for temperature and 10-15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5ÿ°C by year 2030, 2.3ÿ°C by year 2060 and 3.7ÿ°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease -6.7% by year 2030, -9.0% by year 2060 and -18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5ÿ°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant-climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacan State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacan Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/. PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The Nature Conservancy. The Forest Guild. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Department of Defense. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State forestry and fish and game agencies in the Interior West states. The Bureau of Land Management PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Dr. Bryce Richardson was hired into Unit 4255.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development. The goal of this problem area is to supply credible information and considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change.

Publications

  • Bagne, Karen E.; Finch, Deborah M. 2009. Response of small mammal populations to fuel treatment and precipitation in a ponderosa pine forest, New Mexico. Restoration Ecology. 18(S2): 409-417.
  • Klopfenstein, Ned B.; Kim, Mee-Sook; Hanna, John W.; Richardson, Bryce A.; Lundquist, John E. 2009. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-76. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.
  • Page-Dumroese, Deborah, et al. 2009. Portable in-woods pyrolysis: Using forest biomass to reduce forest fuels, increase soil productivity, and sequester carbon. In: Proceeding of the 2009 North American Biochar Conference, August 9-12, Boulder, CO. 13 pp.
  • Richardson, Bryce A.; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Kim, Mee-Sook. 2009. Congruent climate-related genecological responses from molecular markers and quantitative traits for western white pine (Pinus monticola). International Journal of Plant Sciences. 170(9): 1120-1131.
  • Ryan, Michael G.; Harmon, Mark E.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Giardina, Christian P.; Heath, Linda S.; Houghton, Richard A.; Jackson, Robert B.; McKinley, Duncan C.; Morrison, James F.; Murray, Brian C.; Pataki, Diane E.; Skog, Kenneth E. 2010. A synthesis of the science on forests and carbon for U.S. Forests. Ecological Society of America: Issues In Ecology. 13: 1-16.
  • Saenz-Romero, Cuauhtemoc; Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Crookston, Nicholas L.; Duval, Pierre; St-Amant, Remi; Beaulieu, Jean; Richardson, Bryce A. 2010. Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060, and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change. 102: 595-623.


Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This relatively new problem area seeks to understand the role of a dynamic climate in maintaining or perturbing the macro-level stability of ecosystems and individual species of the interior west. It seeks to understand the degree of resilience and resistance of ecosystems and individual species in the face of a changing climatic environment. The problem area looks at the record stored in tree rings, packrat middens, and other sources to see how ecosystems have responded to climate change in the past with the hope of providing insight into how they may respond to contemporary changes. PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The Nature Conservancy. The Forest Guild. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. The Department of Defense. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State forestry and fish and game agencies in the Interior West states. The Bureau of Land Management PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: None.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development. The goal of this problem area is to supply credible information and considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change.

Publications

  • Kim, Mee-Sook; Richardson, Bryce A.; Klopfenstein, Ned B. 2008. Western forest diseases and climate relations: Root diseases and climate change. In: McWilliams, Michael; Palacios, Patsy, comps. Proceedings of the 55th Annual Western International Forest Disease Work Conference; 2007 October 15-19; Sedona, AZ. Salem, OR: Oregon Department of Forestry. p. 17.
  • Klopfenstein, Ned B.; Kim, Mee-Sook; Hanna, John W.; Richardson, Bryce A.; Lundquist, John E. 2009. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-76. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.


Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Rangelands paper focuses on the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region including the Great Basin, Columbia Plateau, Colorado Plateau, and surrounding areas. The climate of this large, arid to semiarid region is defined by generally low and highly variable precipitation. Much of the yearly precipitation arrives as winter snow because most of the moisture comes as frontal storms in winter instead of convective storms in summer. Strong gradients in both temperature and precipitation exist with mountainous areas receiving as much as 127 cm (50 inches) of precipitation a year, and lower elevation cold deserts receiving only about 13 to 18 cm (5 to 7 inches). The distribution of both species and vegetation communities is determined by these gradients. At low to mid-elevations, cold desert vegetation dominates including salt desert shrub, sagebrush steppe and sagebrush semiarid desert, and pinyon and juniper woodlands. At the periphery of the cold deserts and on mountain ranges, diverse forest types occur, including pines, firs, and spruce. Riparian areas, aspen ecosystems, and inter-basin forests dominated by drought-tolerant pines comprise smaller land areas, but support much of the region's biodiversity. The Great Basin is one of the most imperiled regions in the United States. Sustaining its ecosystems, resources, and human populations requires strong collaborative partnerships among the region's research and management organizations. RMRS-GTR-204 is the product of a workshop on "Collaborative Watershed Research and Management in the Great Basin" held in Reno, Nevada, November 28 through 30, 2006. It provides an overview and individual issues papers describing critical research and management issues facing the Great Basin. It also includes summaries of workshop sessions on (1) developing collaborative management and research programs and (2) devising mechanisms for organization and communication. One paper focuses on climate change. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Great Basin by the mid-21st century. The article provides an overview of past and projected climate change for the globe and for the region. Co-sponsors of the workshop included the University of Nevada, Reno, Desert Research Institute; Great Basin Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit; Utah State University; Agricultural Research Service; Bureau of Land Management; State of Nevada, Department of Wildlife and Game; USDA Forest Service, Region 4; USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station; and U. S. Geological Survey. A new project was initiated to develop a tool to assess vulnerability of species at risk from climate change and to develop accounts of each species that managers can use to facilitate species adaptation to climate change. Information about the tool and its application were presented at the New Mexico Climate Change workshop for managers in 2008, hosted by Forest Guild. The powerpoint is available on the New Mexico Forest Guild website. The tool was presented to Region 3 Regional Office Directors and staff and to DoD staff at two AZ bases. A manuscript has been drafted and 3 new climate change grants were received PARTICIPANTS: Program scientists in cooperation with U.S. Geological Survey. University of Nevada, Reno. University of Tucson. University of New Mexico. Other universities in the Interior West. The Nature Conservancy. Forest Guild. TARGET AUDIENCES: USDA Forest Service Regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. Department of Defense: Ft. Huachuca, Barry Goldwater Range. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. State Forestry in Interior West states. State Game and Fish in Interior West States. Bureau of Land Management PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: None.

Impacts
Climate change is a growth platform in Forest Service Research and Development because it is considered a nation-wide priority. As such, information that our publications have supplied will have considerable impact by helping facilitate adaptation and inform managers of tools and options that can be applied to adapt to climate change.

Publications

  • Hall, Stephen A.; Periman, Richard D. 2007. Unusual holocene alluvial record from Rio Del Osos, Jemez Mountains, New Mexico: Paleoclimatic and archaeologic significance. In: Barry S. Kues, Shari A. Kelley, and Virgil W. Lueth, eds. Geology of the Jemez Mountains Region II; 58th Field conference, New Mexico Geological Society. Socorro, NM: New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mine Resources: 459-468.
  • Miller, Richard F.; Tausch, Robin J.; McArthur, E. Durant; Johnson, Dustin D.; Sanderson, Stewart C. 2008. Age structure and expansion of piñon-juniper woodlands: a regional perspective in the Intermountain West. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-69. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 15 p.
  • Chambers, Jeanne C.; Pellant, Mike 2008. Climate change impacts on northwestern and intermountain United States rangelands. Rangelands. 30(3): 29-33.
  • Clifford, Michael J.; Rocca, Monique E.; Delph, Robert; Ford, Paulette L.; Cobb, Neil S. 2008. Drought induced tree mortality and ensuing bark beetle outbreaks in southwestern pinyon-juniper woodlands. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Shaw, John D.; Ford, Paulette L., compilers. 2008. Ecology, management, and restoration of piñon-juniper and ponderosa pine ecosystems: combined proceedings of the 2005 St. George, Utah and 2006 Albuquerque, New Mexico workshops. Proceedings RMRS-P-51. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 39-51
  • Bagne, Karen and Deborah Finch. 2008. Developing a tool to assess wildlife species vulnerability to climate change. New Mexico Forestry and Climate Change Workshop. Albuquerque, NM. http://www.forestguild.org/nmfccworkshop.html and http://www.forestguild.org/climate_change/Finch.pdf
  • Bosque Working Group (Dello Russo, Gina and Karen Bagne, presenters). 2008. Our bosque forests in a changing climate. New Mexico Forestry and Climate Change Workshop. Forest Guild. Albuquerque, New Mexico. http://www.forestguild.org/nmfccworkshop.html and http://www.forestguild.org/climate_change/Bosque.pdf
  • Middle Rio Grande Ecosystem Management Research Unit (led by Finch, Deborah). 2008. Drought in the Southwest: How it affects ecosystems. A summary of work by N. McDowell, M. Ryan, W. Pockman, P. Ford, and N. Cobb. Pp. 7-10 In Finch, D. and C. Dold, eds., Middle Rio Grande Basin Research Report 2008. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/31466
  • Brown, Peter M.; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Kitchen, Stanley G.; Weber, Marc H. 2008. Climate effects on historical fires (1630-1900) in Utah. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 17: 28-39.
  • Chambers, Jeanne C.; Devoe, Nora; Evenden, Angela 2008. Introduction. In: Chambers, Jeanne C.; Devoe, Nora; Evenden, Angela, eds. Collaborative management and research in the Great Basin - examining the issues and developing a framework for action. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-204. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 1-7
  • Chambers, Jeanne C. 2008. Climate change and the Great Basin. In: Chambers, Jeanne C.; Devoe, Nora; Evenden, Angela, eds. Collaborative management and research in the Great Basin - examining the issues and developing a framework for action. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-204. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 29-32